Is the Crypto Bull Run Over?

After rallying to an all-time high in October, bitcoin (BTC) tumbled to trade below $90K on Monday. Other cryptocurrencies have mirrored BTC’s movements, with the overall crypto market losing more than $1 trillion in six weeks.^[1]

With digital assets in a tailspin, many investors are wondering: Is the latest crypto bull run over? It could be if history has any say in it. But with crypto becoming more mainstream than ever, a broader mix of economic and political forces may influence the market in new ways.

Crypto bull runs: past history

One way investors try to predict the future movements of an asset is to examine its past behavior. Bitcoin’s movements typically signal where the broader crypto market is headed, and its price movements have been somewhat predictable over the last decade.

The OG crypto has historically operated on a four-year cycle of boom and bust. It usually takes around 1,000 days for bitcoin to go from a bear market low to a fresh all-time high (ATH). After each ATH, bitcoin loses about 80% of its value just to rebound again.^[2]

In the two most recent cycles, bitcoin entered a crypto bull run and hit ATHs in 2017 and 2021, only for 2018 and 2022 to turn into digital bloodbaths. This year, bitcoin hit its latest ATH on October 6, 2025. Is 2026 about to be the next crypto meltdown?

Maybe.

If bitcoin repeats the same cycle, then a push into a crypto bear market throughout 2026 may be inevitable. But as with any investment asset, there’s more at play than just history.

For example, in 2022, the collapse of crypto exchange FTX was a major contributing factor in bitcoin’s sharp decline to $17,000.^[3] Now, in 2025, crypto is more embedded in both mainstream finance and politics, leaving its price exposed to more external forces than before.

New dynamics influencing crypto bull runs

Traditional finance moves like the tides — somewhat steady and governed by mostly known forces. Crypto is like a storm: violent, fast and harder to model. New conditions continue to emerge, sometimes by the day, that can impact bitcoin’s price and send the entire digital market into a hard swing.

Here are a few of the latest emerging developments that could impact whether crypto returns to a bull run or sinks into a bear market.

What could drive crypto into another bull run:

• A potential surge in crypto exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in late 2025 and into 2026, following the government’s reopening, with over 100 launches expected.^[4]
• Continued support and crypto-friendly legislation from the Trump administration.
• Growing real-world use cases and broader adoption, including an increasing number of crypto credit cards that can be used for everyday purchases.

What could push crypto into a bear market:

• Significant outflows from bitcoin ETFs adding downward pressure on crypto prices.^[4]
• Long-term holders selling to lock in profits after holding bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies for years.
• General market sentiment moving away from riskier investments due to the absence of critical reports from the shutdown, fears of an AI bubble, concerns that tariffs will drive inflation even higher and uncertainty about whether the Fed will cut rates in December.

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Has the crypto bear market already begun?

Wall Street classifies an asset as being in a bear market when it loses more than 20% of its value from a recent peak.^[5] By that definition, bitcoin is in a bear market. Its tumble from $126K to under 90K is a drop of nearly 30%.

But bitcoin — and the crypto market at large — doesn’t always play by Wall Street’s rules.

For example, between bitcoin’s 2020 bottom and its 2021 high, it declined more than 20% on seven occasions but remained in a bull run. In fact, each average decline of 24% was met with an average rally of over 90%.^[6]

However, several current indicators used by analysts to identify true trend reversals are flashing bearish. Bitcoin ETFs have seen sustained outflows, long-term holders are selling at the fastest pace since early 2024 and liquidity remains thin — all conditions that often precede a bear market.^[7]

For now, the jury is still out on whether this latest dip is the start of a deeper slide or just another sharp correction.

What is a crypto winter?

An extended period of contraction across the entire crypto ecosystem, including workforce reduction within the industry, is what some call a crypto winter. It can span months or even years, and doesn’t necessarily align with real, outdoor seasons.

Some speculate that the term crypto winter originated from the HBO series Game of Thrones, with the popular phrase, winter is coming, signaling tough times ahead.^[8]

So, are we seeing the beginning of a crypto winter for 2025?

Not necessarily. Let’s take a look at the difference between a crypto bear market and a true crypto winter.

Crypto bear market

• A drop of 20%+ from recent highs.
• Can last weeks or months.
• Prices can still bounce around and sentiment can shift quickly.

Crypto winter

• A long, drawn-out period of depressed prices.
• Low trading activity, weak liquidity and collapsing demand.
• Industry-wide stagnation: fewer startups, layoffs, reduced VC funding, slower development.
• Can cause or be triggered by the collapse of major projects or exchanges.
• Prolonged negative sentiment where confidence remains low for many months or years.

In short, a crypto bear market is a prolonged decline in prices. A crypto winter is a period of contraction that affects everything crypto, including employment and funding. While we are seeing depressed prices, lower trading activity and weaker liquidity, more time and deterioration need to occur before we can declare that, well, winter is coming.

Finder’s crypto predictions for 2025

Every few months, Finder gathers insights from a panel of cryptocurrency specialists about their forecasts for bitcoin’s value, spanning from 2025’s end through 2035.

Our latest poll, conducted in late October, revealed that Finder’s expert panel anticipates bitcoin will reach an average value of $138,300 by the close of 2025.

Among the panel, the most bullish analysts predict BTC could surge to $188,000, whereas the most bearish expect it may fall to approximately $90,000 before the year’s end.

But remember: These opinions were gathered before the full extent of bitcoin’s recent decline.

• October price predictions
• Historical price predictions

Bottom line

Is bitcoin, and the broader crypto market, simply entering a price dip before rallying again, as it did in 2021? Or are we headed into the next crypto crash post-2022 and the fallout of FTX? Right now, there are arguments and data supporting both directions, marking this a pivotal moment for the digital market.

At this point, it’s too early to declare whether the crypto bull run is over or if we’re entering a bear market. No matter which way the market swings, it’s essential to store your assets in a reliable crypto wallet.

To help you stay protected, we’ve rounded up the top crypto wallets available today.

To make sure you get accurate and helpful information, this guide has been edited by Matt Miczulski as part of our fact-checking process.

Written by

Holly Jennings

Copy Editor

Holly Jennings is the deputy crypto editor and updates writer at Finder, working with writers across all niches to deliver quality content to readers. She’s edited hundreds of financial articles ranging from credit cards to investments. With empathy at heart, she especially enjoys content that breaks down complex financial situations into easy-to-understand information. Prior to her role at Finder, she collaborated with dozens of small businesses to maximize the reach and impact of their blog posts, website copy and other content. In her spare time, she is an award-winning author for Penguin Random House, writing about virtual reality worlds, magical girls and lasers that go pew-pew. See full bio

Holly's expertise

Holly has written 35 Finder guides across topics including:

• Cryptocurrency
• Digital assets
• Investments
• Personal Banking