Bitcoin (BTC) price prediction 2022

Our panel thinks BTC will be worth US$25,473 by the end of 2022 before rising to $106,757 by 2025. And while holding until 2030 may result in a real payoff, the panel sees some tough times ahead in the short-term, expecting BTC to be worth just $13,676 at some point this year. All prices mentioned in this report are in US dollars.

Finder measures expert predictions for the future of Bitcoin's price through 2 surveys. Our weekly survey asks a rotating panel of 5 fintech specialists whether they are bullish, bearish or neutral on BTC for the 2 weeks ahead. Our larger quarterly survey, last conducted in July, asks a panel of 53 industry experts for their thoughts on how Bitcoin will perform over the next decade.

Bitcoin price predictions for 2022, 2025 and 2030

The price of Bitcoin (BTC) is expected to jump to $25,473 by the end of 2022, according to Finder's panel of fintech specialists.

At its highest, the panel sees BTC reaching $35,484 in 2022, but it also predicts a bottoming-out to just $13,676 at some point this year.

• Lowest projection
• Highest projection

It's been a rough start to 2022 for BTC and crypto in general, with the panel's sentiment far more bearish than in previous reports, no doubt due to the May 2022 crypto crash, which took place just after the release of our previous report.

The panel's end-of-2022 prediction of $25,473 in July is a far cry from the $65,185 prediction back in April 2022 and $76,360 in January 2022. However, while the current predictions are lower than previous reports, the panel still expects a similar upward trajectory for the price of Bitcoin, only starting from a lower base. The end-of-2022 prediction of $25,473 represents a roughly 22% increase in its price of $20,808 at the time of writing. The prediction of $106,757 by 2025 would mean a 413% increase, and the 2030 prediction of $314,314 an increase of 1,411% in its price from today.

While the crypto crash is partially to blame for the panel's lower predictions, their collective predictions are becoming less bullish on the highs BTC will see by the end of both 2025 and 2030.

One year ago, the panel predicted BTC closing out 2025 at around $265,000 and 2030 at $706,000 – a far cry from the predictions of roughly $107,000 and $314,000 in the July 2022 report.

Vetle Lunde, analyst at Arcane Research, comes in with an end-of-year prediction of $20,000, which is slightly below the panel average of $25,473. While they suggest holding on to your BTC, they also warn there could be more turmoil ahead for crypto at large:

"Interest rate hikes and balance sheet tightening forced the initial downward pressure in an environment of high correlation to US equities. The Luna/UST collapse had an enormous impact on various funds and lenders, causing contagion and the collapse of 3AC. Further tightening and unwinding of bad crypto debts will create sobering times onwards, and investors should buckle up for more difficulty."

John Hawkins, senior lecturer at the University of Canberra, also gives a below-average prediction for BTC of $10,000 come the end of 2022. However, he sees the coin as a failed experiment and is one in the minority of the panel saying it's time for people to sell:

"BTC is clearly not a store of value given its price volatility. It is not a medium of exchange – almost no stores accept it. It is not a unit of account – the only things priced in it are other cryptocurrencies. So it is not money or really a currency, it is nothing but a speculative bubble in the process of imploding."

However, it's not all doom and gloom. Gavin Smith, general partner at Panxora Hedge Fund, thinks BTC will close out the year worth $48,000. He expects "the second half of 2022 to be characterised by declining pressure for higher rates combined with a negative real yield. These factors together should be constructive for Bitcoin price performance."

Fred Schebesta, founder of Finder, thinks that BTC will be worth $75,000 at the end of 2022 and sees its current price as a reaction to what's happening in other markets, rather than as a reaction to the "value" BTC provides:

"The market is currently fearful. However, the technology hasn't changed and is still strong. Bitcoin is following the downturn of other parts of the economy, but I have strong conviction that it will bounce back."

Is this a "crypto winter"?

With the average end-of-year forecast for Bitcoin not much higher than its price at the time of writing, it comes as no surprise that the majority of Finder's panel (77%) say that we're officially at the start of a crypto winter. Just 8% of panelists say we're not in a crypto winter while the remaining 15% aren't sure.

A crypto winter is typically characterized by a prolonged period of flat trading following a steep price crash. In this case, the crash occurred in May and was triggered by several events, the biggest of which was global interest rate hikes, according to 70% of panelists. This is followed by Terra's (LUNA) collapse (68%), tightening of balance sheets by central banks (47%) and rising inflation (40%).

CoinJar CEO Asher Tan says the markets have been rattled by a sequence of both internal and external factors.

"... Starting with the macroeconomic shift towards higher interest rates, a move whose depressive effect on asset prices around the world then exposed the dangerous practices being engaged in by CeFi yield providers. We believe it will take many months for the dust to settle, during which time it will remain difficult to find new bidders to drive sustained upwards momentum."

Swinburne University of Technology director Dr Dimitrios Salampasis thinks the crash was largely brought on by the collapse of Terra (LUNA) and a lack of regulation.

"The current crypto market is suffering from contagion due to the high interconnectivity and the lack of proper regulation. What [we] are also observing is that numerous quasi-DeFi and quasi-CeFi schemes are unable to deliver, showing how weak the foundations of the entire crypto marketplace are.

Moreover, we are observing that crypto is indeed susceptible to external market and economic forces. In general, a number of prevailing narratives are getting reverse-engineered," he said.

How long will this bear market last?

While the majority of panelists agree we're in a crypto winter, just how long these conditions will last is up for debate. Only 29% think it will recover this year. 46% say it will last until 2023 and 24% say it will last until 2024 or even later.

University of Brighton senior lecturer Paul Levy thinks that the crypto winter will last until the second half of 2023 and that BTC will end 2022 at $15,000.

"Bitcoin will likely bounce back in 2023, which may actually lead to inflated expectations and further instability. Much of course depends on world events such as the war in Ukraine and its own ongoing impact on global confidence," he said.

Thomson Reuters technologist and futurist Joseph Raczynski thinks the bear market will only last until the end of the year and expects these cycles to happen on a faster timeline than we've previously seen.

"A perfect storm brought on a crypto winter blast. Over leveraged people/institutions, failure of several huge organizations and algo stablecoins, pending regulation, macro inflation and a natural cadence of the ebb and flow in the market has woken the polar bear. I think this bear is up for a shorter term cycle, as the entire crypto world is more and more in hyper cycles – which are going to be faster over the next 5 years."

A few panelists, including co-director at the University of East London Dr Iwa Salami and CoinSmart CEO Justin Hartzman, think the crash was a necessary part of the cycle.

"I believe it is necessary to weed out unscrupulous actors in the space, leaving robust projects standing at the end of it. It has also pronounced the need for the regulation of stablecoins, which are integral to the workings of the industry, its further growth and credibility," Salami said.

Is now the time to buy, sell or hold BTC?

Even as the DeFi world deals with the fallout from the crypto crash, just 10% of the panel say that now is the time to sell Bitcoin. Meanwhile, 50% of the panel say now is the time to buy, while 40% advise HODLing.

A popular reason for those saying it's time to buy BTC is its utility as a store of value, similar to that of gold.

Desmond Marshall, MD at Rouge International and Rouge Ventures, thinks now is the time to buy and says that in the world of crypto, "BTC is the only one that could be comparable for a safe haven asset (like gold)."

Niraali Patel, investor relations and communications manager for CryptAM, also says it's time to buy BTC. She likens the digital asset to gold:

"We must think about the long-term implications of Bitcoin and Proof-of-Work cryptocurrencies. Once mined, this will be the next main store of value as gold once was. The halving is set to occur in 2024, and this will, by definition, increase the USD price of Bitcoin by quite a bit. For this reason, I believe this is the time to buy. Once the halving happens, BTC will be worth at least $100,000."

Ramani Ramachandran, CEO and co-founder of Router Protocol, is in the holding camp, but also brings up the halving as an upcoming opportunity for investors, saying, "If we have learned anything in the past, it is that Bitcoin will have its next run after that halving, which is due in 2024."

Lee Smales, associate professor of finance at the University of Western Australia, is one of a handful of panel members who say that it's time to get out of BTC, because it's not the shield from inflation as once thought.

"Investors will continue to move out of risky assets, with the riskiest assets suffering the most substantial falls," says Smales. "The last few months have shown that cryptocurrency acting as a hedge against inflation is a fallacy."

Carol Alexander, professor of finance at the University of Sussex, goes a step further, saying that "Bitcoin is purely speculative [and] has no utility value for the development of Web 3".

How likely is it that Bitcoin will move to a Proof-of-Stake (PoS) model?

There has been a lot of talk about the possibility of BTC moving from a Proof-of-Work (PoW) to a Proof-of-Stake (PoS) model, due to the environmental impacts of PoW.

However, while there may be some vocal proponents of BTC making the switch, our panel doesn't see this as something that is going to happen. Just 4% of the panel say it's somewhat likely that BTC will move to a PoS model, with the overwhelming majority (83%) saying it is very unlikely.

Is Bitcoin a risk asset or store of value?

The panel is divided on just what type of asset BTC is, with 42% saying Bitcoin is either a risk asset or a store of value. The remaining panellists don't see BTC falling under either definition.

Bottom line

If you're considering buying Bitcoin (BTC), the most important points to remember are to do your research and to make yourself familiar with all the risks involved. Though this digital currency has delivered substantial returns to its early adopters, that's no guarantee of future growth.

If cryptocurrencies can continue their push into the mainstream and achieve widespread acceptance, not only among consumers but also from governments around the world, this could mean good things for Bitcoin. And if the scalability issues facing the Bitcoin blockchain can be successfully overcome, there seems to be potential for future growth.

However, don't forget that the cryptocurrency sphere is increasingly crowded, and Bitcoin is sure to face plenty of threats to its title as the world's number-one cryptocurrency from a host of well-known and professionally backed competitors. Watch this space to see how it all unfolds.

Meet the panel

Bitcoin price prediction for two weeks' time

Each week we ask our expert panel's verdict on the Bitcoin price in a fortnight's time. When asked this week, 3 were bullish (up 1 from last week), 1 was neutral (same as last week) and 1 was bearish (down 1 from last week) about the price of BTC for the week of 17 October 2022.