EV industry forecast

How big will the electric vehicle market be in 2030?

Electric vehicles (EVs) are forecast to change the landscape of the automotive industry within the next decade and EV stocks are extremely popular with investors as well. And while we may be a few years off from flying cars and jet packs, there’s nothing farfetched about what the industry could look like in a couple of years. The EV market is already bringing some exciting changes to how we move about, making all our lives a little greener. Read on to find out how the electric vehicle industry is projected to grow by 2030.

Quick overview

  • EV sales are forecast to reach 31.1 million (32% market share) by 2030
  • EV sales are projected to grow 900% from 2020 to 2030
  • China is projected to have 49% of the global EV market share in 2030
  • Tesla aims to produce 20 million vehicles per year by 2030
  • EV sales grew 43% in 2020 by 3.1 million, which is 4.86% of total vehicles sold worldwide
  • There are over 10 million registered EVs worldwide
  • Tesla Model 3 was the most sold EV in 2020 with 350,000 sold worldwide
  • EV registrations grew 112% from March 2020 to March 2021 in the UK
  • The most popular electric car in the UK is the Mitsubishi Outlander with 51,730 vehicles in 2020

Industry projections for 2030

Future sale forecast

Analyst projections place EVs as a dominant force in the global car market by 2030. Global EV sales with a compound annual growth rate of 29% over the next 10 years are even forecast to reach 31.1 million (32% total market share). These projections are related to the billions invested by original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) to deliver the EV future in conjunction with governments across the world incentivising green transport.

Years Total EV sales in millions ($)
2020 2500000
2025 11200000
2030 31000000

Differences by major region

With many governments incentivising their population to reduce pollution and carbon emissions, EVs are forecast to be a mainstream option in the market. China is expected to have 49% of the global share of EVs, with Europe (27%) and the US (14%) following. The market share within their domestic markets, China (48%), Europe (42%) and USA (27%), will have increased considerably, with the current global stock for EVs being 7.2 million in 2021 and growing by 23.9 million by 2030.

Regions Percentage market share
China 49%
Europe 27%
USA 14%
Rest of the world 10%

Bestselling EV models

It comes as no surprise that Tesla is driving the shift towards EVs with Elon Musk ambitiously announcing it aims to produce 20 million cars per year by 2030 (as of 2021, Tesla produces 300,000 new cars per year). German car manufacturer BMW wants to electrify its European market by 50% and VW aims to have over 70 new electric models, meaning 40% of global sales could be EVs. Mazda plans for all car models to either be EV or hybrid by 2030, with Honda forecasting two-thirds of its global sales to be from EVs.

Past growth of EV vehicles

Past years of EV sales

EVs sales grew 43% in 2020 (3.1 million). In comparison, overall industry sales dropped by over a fifth in 2020, most likely an effect of the coronavirus pandemic. Internal combustion engine (ICE) cars continued to dominate the market with 63.8 million vehicles sold in 2020 worldwide, while EVs made up just 4.86% of total vehicles sold across the globe in 2020.

Year EV units sold
2015 580,000
2016 800,000
2017 1,260,000
2018 2,090,000
2019 2,170,000
2020 3,100,000

Differences by major region

The global amount of EVs stood at 10.2 million in 2020. China is the largest EV market in the world with 4.5 million of the global stock, which saw a 43% increase in 2020 compared to 2019. This is over 44% of the total global EV stock. Europe owns the second largest share of the global stock at 3.2 million, notably with an 83% annual increase from 2019 to 2020. This is driven by markets such as Norway, with its domestic market share being 55% of all cars being EV. The US owns 1.15 million of the global stock but saw a 2% decrease in sales from 2019 to 2020, against the global trend of EV sales increasing.

Europe saw the largest growth in 2020 from 2019 over all other regions, with an 83% increase in sales for EVs. China’s already popular EV market grew by 17%, whereas the US saw a slight decrease by 2%. The rest of the world increased by 22%, highlighting that not only these regions are seeing a shift towards the electric car.

Region Global share
China 44.12%
Europe 31.37%
USA 11.25%
Rest of the world 13.26%

Most popular models

The Tesla Model 3 (£42,000) is the most popular electric car being bought, with over 350,000 sales alone in 2020, almost triple the Wuling HongGuang Mini EV (£3,200) at 119,000, an EV that the Chinese government offers free licence plates for all new purchasers. French manufacturer Renault Zoe (£28,795) is the third most popular EV at 100,000 sold. This is the most popular EV in Europe, where the car saw a 118% increase in sales from 2019. Tesla appeared again with its Model Y (£35,000), which sold 80,000 units and with Hyundai Kona Electric (£24,995) in fifth with 65,000.

Bestselling models Units sold
Tesla Model 3 365,000
Wuling HongGuang Mini EV 119,000
Renalt Zoe 100,000
Tesla Model Y 80,000
Hyundai Kona Electric 65,000

EVs in the UK

EV ownership in the UK

In the UK, new EV registrations grew 112% from March 2020 to March 2021. There are over 245,000 pure electric and over 515,000 plug-in models on our roads, which is an increase of 175,000 more EVs in the UK and 66% growth since 2019.

The most popular EVs in the UK vary from the most popular models sold worldwide. The Mitsubishi Outlander (plug-in hybrid) is the bestselling model in the UK (51,730 sold), followed by the Nissan Leaf (battery powered) in second place with over 41,000 vehicles sold. Tesla Model 3 is placed third in 2020 with 32,000, ahead of the BMW 3 series (over 27,000) and Renault Zoe with over 17,000.

Models EV Models sold
Mitsubishi Outlander 51,730
Nissan Leaf 41,587
Tesla Model 3 32,848
BMW 3 Series 27,869
Renault Zoe 17,086
BMW i3 15,102

Consumer priorities and thoughts on EV vehicles

Consumer priorities and thoughts on EV vehicles

When consumers were polled about EV adoption in 2020, driving range capacity was the biggest concern in Germany (33%) and France (28%). Respondents in the US (25%), Japan (29%), South Korea (32%), China (20%) and India (26%) all cite lack of charging infrastructure as top priority. Manufacturers are making the conscious effort to overcome these consumer perceptions in order to drive sales and their own business objectives.

How many Brits plan to use an electric vehicle?

EV intentions by generation

Unexpectedly, young drivers aren’t necessarily the most worried about the environmental impact of their vehicle. 58% of drivers over 55 are planning to “go green”, against only 38% of 18- to 24-year-olds. A fifth of (21%) drivers over 55 want to get rid of their vehicle or avoid buying a new one for environmental reasons.

Electric cars are most popular among 25- to 34-year-old drivers, with 16% saying they want to buy one next time. The generation of drivers which is least likely to take the green path is that of 35- to 44-year-olds (37%).

Age Drivers making greener decisions (by choosing hybrids, electric vehicles or getting rid for environmental reasons)
18-24 38.1%
25-34 43.4%
35-44 37.4%
45-54 41.6%
55+ 57.8%

EV intentions by region

Which British region has the most environmentally friendly drivers? The North West tops the chart. Almost three fifths (59%) of local drivers here say they will be opting for a hybrid or an electric vehicle, or ditching their vehicles altogether for environmental reasons. London follows suit with 56%. The capital also has the highest percentage of drivers (23%) planning to buy an electric car in the foreseeable future. Chances are it has something to do with the congestion charge and the plans to expand the ultra-low emission zone to more areas of the city by the end of 2021. Wales comes last, with only 32% of drivers currently planning to “go green”.

Region Percentage
East of England 32.1%
East Midlands 38.8%
London 55.6%
North East 42.2%
North West 58.7%
Northern Ireland 52.8%
Scotland 34.1%
South East 36.5%
South West 43.1%
Wales 31.7%
West Midlands 40.0%
Yorshire and the Humber 32.8%

Sources used

  • Deloitte
  • BloombergNEF
  • International Energy Agency
  • Statista
  • Nextgreencar

All investing should be regarded as longer term. The value of your investments can go up and down, and you may get back less than you invest. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. If you’re not sure which investments are right for you, please seek out a financial adviser. Capital at risk.

For all media enquiries, please contact

Matt Mckenna
UK communications manager
T: +44 20 8191 8806

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