Google Bard predicts financial events: How accurate will it be?
We ask Google Bard to predict a range of financial scenarios.
We asked Google Bard to predict a range of financial scenarios, including interest rates, inflation, company earnings, house prices and the strength of the pound. How accurate will the AI bot be?
| Outcome | Bard prediction | Correct? |
|---|---|---|
| Base rate on 3 August 2023 | 5% | ❌ |
| Apple earnings per share (EPS) on 3 August 2023 | $1.19 | ❌ |
| Consumer price index (CPI) in July 2023 | 9.70% | ❌ |
| Average house price for June 2023 | £288,000 | ✅ |
| FIFA Women's World Cup winner 2023 | Spain | ✅ |
| Pound to euro exchange rate on 1 September 2023 | 1 pound = 1.16 euros | ❌ |
| Pound to dollar exchange rate on 1 September 2023 | 1 pound = 1.28 US dollars | ❌ |
| Price of Bitcoin on 1 September 2023 | Between $30,000 and $32,000 | ❌ |
| The Meg 2 gross box office figure by the end of August 2023 | $450 million worldwide | ❌ |
| When will the base rate peak? | September 2023 BoE meeting | |
| When will inflation hit 2%? | December 2024 | |
| Number of current account switches in Q3 2023 | 372,000 | |
| Which bank gets the most current account switchers in Q3 2023? | Natwest | |
| When will Tesla’s market cap reach $1 trillion? | December 2025 |
Base rate predictions
The Bank of England (BoE) sets the official base rate 8 times per year, and this impacts other interest rates, including savings, mortgages and personal loans. We asked Bard to make predictions for the upcoming base rate announcement.
Q. What will the base rate be after the announcement on 3 August?
Prediction: The base rate will stay at 5%
- Incorrect prediction. The base rate was raised to 5.25%.
Q. When will the base rate peak?
Prediction: The BoE meeting in September 2023.
“The Bank of England is likely to want to see how the economy is responding to the previous rate hikes before deciding whether to raise rates further.”
Company earnings predictions
Companies announced their earnings for each quarter, including the earnings per share (EPS). The EPS is important because it indicates a company’s profitability in relation to each share of its stock. We asked Bard for its predictions on the next announcement.
Q. What will Apple’s EPS for the quarter ending June 2023 be when it is announced on 3 August?
Prediction: $1.19.
- Incorrect prediction. The reported EPS was $1.26.
Inflation predictions
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a common touchpoint used for inflation. It measures the overall change in a representative basket of consumer goods and services over time.
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) releases the figure each month, so we asked Bard for its predictions.
Q. What will the CPI be for July when it is released on August 16th?
Prediction: 9.7%
- Incorrect prediction. The CPI for July 2023 was 6.8%.
Q. When will inflation hit 2%?
Prediction: December 2024
“This is because the Bank of England has said it is committed to bringing inflation back to 2% by the end of 2024. They have also said they are prepared to raise interest rates further if necessary. I believe that the Bank of England will be able to bring inflation under control by the end of 2024.”
House price predictions
House prices vary month on month in the UK, and the ONS releases the average house price every month. Ahead of the next release, we asked Bard to predict the average house price.
Q. What will the average UK house price be for June when it is released on August 16th?
Prediction: £288,000
- Correct prediction. The average house price for June 2023 was £288,000.
Current account switching predictions
The Current Account Switch Service (CASS) releases figures every quarter on the number of current account switches that have taken place.
Q. What will the CASS switching figure be for Q3 2023 when it is released in October?
Prediction: 372,000 switches
“I believe that the number of switches will continue to increase in Q3 of 2023. The rising cost of living, the increasing popularity of challenger banks and the introduction of new payment technologies are all likely to continue to drive people to switch payment providers.”
Q. Which bank is most likely to get the most switchers in Q3 2023?
Prediction: Natwest
“Natwest is well-known and has a strong brand presence. It also offers a variety of competitive products and services, which could attract new customers. They’re also investing heavily into marketing and customer acquisition.”
Currency predictions
The value of currencies and exchange rates are constantly changing, impacted by supply and demand. The exchange rate tells you how much of a country’s currency you could buy for each unit of another currency at any given moment. We asked Bard what the value of the pound would be in relation to other currencies.
Q. What will the pound-to-euro exchange rate be on 1 September 2023?
Prediction: The pound will be worth 1.16 euros
- Incorrect prediction. The pound was worth 1.17 euros.
Q. What will the pound-to-dollar exchange rate be on 1 September 2023?
Prediction: The pound will be worth 1.28 US dollars
- Incorrect prediction. The pound was worth 1.27 US dollars.
Cryptocurrency predictions
The price of cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin also changes over time, impacted by supply and demand and global events. We asked Bard to predict the price of Bitcoin on a given day to see how accurate it might be.
Q. What will the price of Bitcoin be on 1 September 2023?
Prediction: The price of Bitcoin will trade between $30,000 and $32,000
- Incorrect prediction. The price of Bitcoin was between $25,900 and $26,150.
Market cap predictions
Market capitalisation, or market cap, is the total value of a company’s publicly traded shares. It is used to determine a company’s size and relative financial performance. We asked Bard to predict when the market cap of certain well-known and successful companies might hit a particular figure.
Q. When will Tesla’s market cap reach $1 trillion?
Prediction: December 2025
This is based on my estimate that it will take Tesla 3 to 5 years to overcome the challenges it is currently facing and reach this milestone. Here are some factors that could help Tesla reach $1 trillion in market capitalisation by December 2025:- Continued growth in the electric vehicle market
- The successful launch of new products, such as the Cybertruck and the Semi
- Improved profitability
- A more favourable economic environment
Popular culture predictions
As well as the more serious financial events on the calendar, we wanted Bard’s thoughts on popular culture! Here are some predictions for upcoming events.
Q. Which country will win the Women’s Football World Cup in 2023?
Prediction: Spain
- Correct prediction. Spain won the Fifa Women’s World Cup in August 2023.
Q. What will the gross box office figure be for The Meg 2 by the end of August 2023?
Prediction: $450 million worldwide
- Incorrect prediction. The Meg 2 had grossed $384,930,000 as of 11th September 2023.
“The Meg 2 has a number of factors in its favour that could help it to reach this figure. The first film was a critical and commercial success, and there is a lot of anticipation for the sequel. The film also has a strong cast, including Jason Statham, Bingbing Li and Rainn Wilson.”
What is Google Bard?
Bard is Google’s AI chatbot, an example of generative AI designed to answer questions and generate text from prompts. Bard is connected to the internet and can access up-to-date information. This means it has the potential to draw on the most current data available, like humans, to make predictions!
Should you use Bard for financial advice?
Bard is known to make basic errors and is not supposed to offer financial advice, so it is not recommended to use this AI chatbot if you are looking to make any significant life decisions. It cannot be relied on as an accurate and reliable source while still in its early stages.
Methodology
- Analysts at finder.com asked Bard to predict the outcomes for a range of upcoming events, mainly related to personal finance, on 28 July 2023.
- They monitored the results of these events as released to determine whether Bard had predicted each event correctly or incorrectly.
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