
Bank of England interest rate predictions
Some of the UK’s brightest minds in economics and property share their interest rate predictions ahead of the next Bank of England base rate meeting.
Read more…If you’re looking to invest in property with the view of renting it out, a buy-to-let mortgage is a great way of borrowing the necessary funds to do so. We looked at the latest reports to see how many Brits are investing in property using this lending method.
From April 2022 to March 2023, there was an estimated £36.8 billion worth of buy-to-let mortgage lending, down slightly from £37.5 billion between April 2021 to March 2022.
In the first quarter of 2023, the value of buy-to-let mortgage lending dropped by 40% to £5.8 billion from £9.7 billion in the previous quarter. This is also a 44% drop from the same period in 2022 when lending was £10.3 billion.
The share of total mortgage lending value for buy-to-let purposes was just 9.8% in Jan-March 2023, the lowest observed since 2011, which may suggest declining interest in landlords wishing to purchase properties to rent.
On the other hand, the highest value of buy-to-let lending granted was in the third quarter of 2022 at £10.7 billion, accounting for 12.5% of the total mortgage lending value.
Month | Value (£bill) |
---|---|
Q2 2021 | 10.1574 |
Q3 2021 | 8.7346 |
Q4 2021 | 8.2836 |
Q1 2022 | 10.3046 |
Q2 2022 | 10.608 |
Q3 2022 | 10.7375 |
Q4 2022 | 9.7104 |
Q1 2023 | 5.7624 |
The average buy-to-let mortgage rate in July 2023 was 6.18%, assuming a 2-year fixed-rate mortgage at 75% LTV (loan-to-value ratio). This is the highest rate in the last decade and has increased dramatically by 4.32% from an average interest rate of just 1.86% in July 2021.
The lowest average buy-to-let interest rate in the past decade was seen in October 2021 at just 1.65%.
Month | Interest rate |
---|---|
Jul 2021 | 1.86 |
Aug 2021 | 1.79 |
Sep 2021 | 1.75 |
Oct 2021 | 1.65 |
Nov 2021 | 1.67 |
Dec 2021 | 1.7 |
Jan 2022 | 1.7 |
Feb 2022 | 1.78 |
Mar 2022 | 2.12 |
Apr 2022 | 2.43 |
May 2022 | 2.64 |
Jun 2022 | 2.85 |
Jul 2022 | 3.37 |
Aug 2022 | 3.52 |
Sep 2022 | 4.12 |
Oct 2022 | 5.87 |
Nov 2022 | 6 |
Dec 2022 | 5.68 |
Jan 2023 | 5.34 |
Feb 2023 | 5.11 |
Mar 2023 | 5.05 |
Apr 2023 | 4.69 |
May 2023 | 4.74 |
Jun 2023 | 5.45 |
Jul 2023 | 6.18 |
As of June 2023, the average yearly return on a buy-to-let property is £2,995, down from £7,312 in June 2022. This refers to the amount remaining once mortgage interest payments have been deducted from rental income.
This decrease is due to rising mortgage rates in recent months. When buy-to-let mortgage rates increase, anyone looking to take out a new loan will have much higher monthly interest payments. This puts pressure on rental prices, which are already rising. We compared how buy-to-let returns have changed over time in line with changing house prices, mortgage rates and rent prices.
In June 2023, landlords would have paid approximately £979 in buy-to-let mortgage interest. An average monthly rental price of £1,229 leaves them with returns of £250, adding up to £2,995 over the year.
This is a substantial decrease in returns from June 2022, when just £504 in interest was paid, and there was an average rental price of £1,113, giving returns of £609. This adds up to £7,312 over the year.
These estimates show the owner of the average buy-to-let property could earn £4,317 less a year if a 2-year loan was fixed in June 2023 compared to June 2022. This is why there are fears about landlords selling their buy-to-let properties and leaving the rental market.
Period | Interest rate | Average monthly returns |
---|---|---|
May 2016 | 3.21% | £480.91 |
May 2017 | 2.62% | £540.86 |
May 2018 | 2.26% | £598.60 |
May 2019 | 2.28% | £607.59 |
May 2020 | 1.83% | £694.21 |
May 2021 | 2.00% | £680.12 |
May 2022 | 2.64% | £640.28 |
May 2023 | 4.74% | £366.14 |
In 2022, around 4.61 million people were living in buy-to-let properties. The total number of buy-to-let properties is likely higher, as some rental properties would have been unoccupied.
However, reports suggest more landlords are selling their rental properties, with estimates that 400,000 properties have been sold between 2016 and May 2023 and 126,500 properties have been sold since the beginning of 2022. The same estimates suggest that 1 in 10 rental properties could be lost from the market by the end of 2023.
Successive rises in the base rate have meant that mortgage rates are soaring in the buy-to-let market as well as the residential market, and this makes it less appealing for landlords to invest in property.
A typical deposit for a buy-to-let property is usually 25% of the property price, but this can vary between 20% and 40%. The minimum deposit will usually be higher than a standard residential mortgage deposit.
Nationwide is the biggest UK buy-to-let provider in terms of gross lending, with a market share of 15.8% and total lending of £7.43 billion in 2021. Lloyds Bank comes in second place, with a 14.3% market share, followed by Santander (9%), Coventry Building Society (7%) and OneSavings Bank (6%).
Bank | Market share |
---|---|
Nationwide Building Society | 15.80% |
Lloyds Banking Group | 14.30% |
Santander UK | 9.00% |
Coventry Building Society | 7.00% |
OneSavings Bank Plc | 6.10% |
Barclays | 5.00% |
NatWest Group | 4.60% |
Virgin Money Plc | 4.50% |
Paragon Banking Group | 3.60% |
Foundation Home Loans | 2.50% |
Rental yield is the potential returns a landlord could get on a property they purchase and then rent out. The average rental yield varies across property types.
Multi-block flats had the best rental yield in the third quarter of 2022 at 6.3%. They are followed by houses in multiple occupations (HMOs) and bungalows. Houses and individual flats are estimated to be less profitable property types in the buy-to-let market, but there isn’t a massive difference between the property types.
Property type | Q3 2022 |
---|---|
Multi-block flats | 6.30% |
Houses in multiple occupation (HMO) | 6.20% |
Bungalow | 6.10% |
Detached house | 5.90% |
Terraced house | 5.90% |
Individual flats | 5.80% |
Semi-detached house | 5.70% |
There were 7,030 buy-to-let mortgages in arrears of 2.5% or more in the first quarter of 2023, 16% more than in the previous quarter. Within the total, there were 3,420 buy-to-let mortgages in the lightest arrears band, representing between 2.5% and 5% of the outstanding balance. This was 33.1% higher than the previous quarter.
The highest amount of arrears owed in the past three years was in Jan-March 2023, as buy-to-let mortgages in arrears made up 0.34% of all outstanding buy-to-let mortgages.
Month | 2.5%-5% of balance | 5%-7.5% of balance | 7.5%-10% of balance | 10% of balance |
---|---|---|---|---|
2020 Q1 | 0.13% | 0.05% | 0.02% | 0.07% |
2020 Q2 | 0.14% | 0.06% | 0.03% | 0.07% |
2020 Q3 | 0.15% | 0.06% | 0.03% | 0.08% |
2020 Q4 | 0.16% | 0.07% | 0.03% | 0.08% |
2021 Q1 | 0.14% | 0.06% | 0.03% | 0.08% |
2021 Q2 | 0.14% | 0.06% | 0.03% | 0.09% |
2021 Q3 | 0.12% | 0.06% | 0.03% | 0.08% |
2021 Q4 | 0.12% | 0.06% | 0.03% | 0.09% |
2022 Q1 | 0.12% | 0.06% | 0.03% | 0.09% |
2022 Q2 | 0.10% | 0.05% | 0.03% | 0.09% |
2022 Q3 | 0.11% | 0.05% | 0.03% | 0.09% |
2022 Q4 | 0.13% | 0.05% | 0.03% | 0.09% |
2023 Q1 | 0.17% | 0.06% | 0.03% | 0.09% |
In the first quarter of 2023, 410 buy-to-let mortgaged properties were taken into possession, a 28% increase on the previous quarter at the end of 2022.
However, the first quarter of 2020 had the highest number of possessions over the past three years, as 640 properties were possessed. However, this decreased by 80% by the second quarter of 2020, as only 130 buy-to-let properties were possessed. By the end of 2022, a total of 1,450 buy-to-let properties were possessed.
Month | Buy-to-let |
---|---|
2020 Q1 | 640 |
2020 Q2 | 130 |
2020 Q3 | 220 |
2020 Q4 | 190 |
2021 Q1 | 180 |
2021 Q2 | 230 |
2021 Q3 | 310 |
2021 Q4 | 320 |
2022 Q1 | 380 |
2022 Q2 | 350 |
2022 Q3 | 400 |
2022 Q4 | 320 |
2023 Q1 | 410 |
Some of the UK’s brightest minds in economics and property share their interest rate predictions ahead of the next Bank of England base rate meeting.
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