Our panel of experts share their predictions on interest, mortgage and savings rates for 2023.
The Bank of England (BoE) sets the official bank rate 8 times per year. If the base rate changes, it can immediately impact personal finances. Savings rates, mortgage rates and personal loan interest are all heavily influenced by what the Bank of England decides. After years of ultra-low interest rates in the UK, we are now seeing a lot of changes to the base rate due to high inflation.
At Finder, we have brought together an expert panel of academics, economists, mortgage experts and savings experts, asking them for a range of predictions and opinions on what will happen with the base rate at the next BoE meeting and for the rest of the year.
Interest rate predictions
The current base rate is 4.5% as of 11 May 2023.
82% of experts predict that the base rate will be higher than 4% at the end of 2023.
45% of experts predict that the base rate will sit at 4.25% by the end of 2023.
18% of experts believe the base rate will be 5% or higher by the end of 2023.
Meet the panel
Full name
Organisation
Title
Alan Shipman
The Open University
Senior lecturer in economics
Charles Read
University of Cambridge
Fellow in economics
David McMillan
University of Stirling
Professor in finance
Giles Coghlan
HYCM
Chief market analyst
Jon Ostler
finder.com
CEO
Kate Anderson
finder.com
Deputy editor
Konstantinos Lagos
University of Sheffield Hallam
Senior lecturer in business and economics
Luciano Rispoli
University of Surrey
Senior lecturer in economics
Muhammad Ali Nasir
Leeds University
Associate professor in economics
Paul Dales
Capital Economics
Chief UK economist
Phillip Rush
Heteronomics
Founder and chief economist
Rob Peters
Simple Fast Mortgage
Principal
Stephen Sillars
Chip
Savings and investments editor
David Hollingworth*
L&C Mortgages
Associate director
Nitesh Patel*
Yorkshire Building Society
Strategic economist
* Only took part in the panel ahead of the BoE’s February meeting
Panel highlights
The current base rate is 4.5% as of 11 May 2023.
Three quarters (75%) believe the rate rise to 4.5% is the right decision.
One third (33%) of panellists who predicted a rate rise to 4.50% believe that fixed-rate mortgages will go higher and for longer.
6 out of 10 (60%) panellists who provided housing commentary predict there will be a downward pull on house prices.
All but one expert agrees that savings rates will increase but trail the base rate.
Panellists are split 50/50 over whether the BoE should take a hawkish approach and tighten monetary policy throughout 2023.
The next base rate meeting is 22 June 2023.
Do you think current interest rates will hold, rise or fall?
Ahead of the 11th May Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting, 92% of experts (12 of 13) correctly predicted that the Bank of England would raise the base rate again by 0.25%, while one panellist believed the interest rate would hold.
Three quarters (75%) of panellists who predicted a rate rise to 4.50% believe it is the right decision, whilst the other quarter (25%) disagree with the decision.
The main reasons given for the predicted rate increase were higher-than-expected inflation and rising wages. Paul Dales, chief UK economist at Capital Economics cites the “risk of the 2% inflation target being missed for even longer” as the driving force for the rate rise.
David McMillan, professor in finance at the University of Stirling, mentioned a vulnerability of the pound to the US dollar to be a main reason for a rate rise.
In our previous panel, 9 of the 11 panellists (82%) correctly predicted that the base rate would continue to rise further in 2023, so the expectation for yet another increase is not surprising given the current market.
Should the Bank of England tighten monetary policy over the course of 2023?
Opinions are split equally over whether the BoE should tighten monetary policy.
Of the panel, 6 believe the BoE should take a hawkish approach, which involves raising rates to curb inflation throughout 2023.
Phillip Rush, founder and chief economist at Heteronomics, believes the BoE should take a hawkish approach, since “wage deals appear to be anchoring near 5% without the massive productivity growth or structurally imported disinflation necessary to make it consistent with the inflation target. It needs to hawkishly assert its credibility to break excessive pay deals.”
However, 6 panellists believe that the BoE should take a dovish approach and avoid excessive rate hikes.
Dr. Konstantinos Lagos, senior lecturer in business and economics at the University of Sheffield Hallam, says that “due to the monetary policy transmission time lags, the BoE should be careful about the speed and magnitude of future rate hikes, and be ready to fine-tune rates in the future according to the economic/financial data”.
Ahead of the meeting in February 2023, 55% of our previous panel wanted the Bank of England to follow a dovish approach. Persistent inflation after the February rate rise may be pushing the BoE to be more hawkish.
The Bank of England’s monetary policy committee (MPC) meets 8 times a year. The last meeting of this year will be held on 14 December 2023.
MPC meeting schedule 2023
2 February
23 March
11 May
22 June
3 August
21 September
2 November
14 December
What will the impact be on mortgage rates and products?
Two thirds of panellists that predicted a 0.25% rise in the base rate believe that this will not have a negative impact on fixed-rate mortgages, whilst the remaining experts believe that fixed-rate mortgages will go higher and for longer.
Alan Shipman, senior lecturer in economics at The Open University, predicts that “although floating and short-term fixed mortgage rates will rise in line with any base rate increase, longer-term fixed rates are likely to stay unchanged or even drift downwards”.
Meanwhile, Dr Charles Read, a fellow in economics at the University of Cambridge, believes that a rise in the base rate is “likely to increase mortgage rates and restrict affordability in the housing market, affecting both first-time buyers and investors”.
Rob Peters, principal at Simple Fast Mortgage, predicts the base rate will hold and long-term swap rates will go down, which “should encourage mortgage lenders to follow suit” and lower long-term fixed mortgage rates.
Of the panellists who provided commentary on house prices, 6 out of 10 (60%) predict there will be a downward pull on house prices, following a rate rise of 0.25%. On the flip side, 4 out of 10 (40%) believe that house prices will remain stagnant.
Dr Luciano Rispoli, senior lecturer in economics at the University of Surrey, said: “House prices will be affected depending on the availability of mortgage products and rates. However, higher mortgage rates should unambiguously put further downward pressures on house prices.”
Muhammad Ali Nasir, associate professor in economics at the University of Leeds, agrees, stating: “House prices are already going down, a rate rise would suppress them further.”
Kate Anderson, deputy editor at finder.com, instead believes that prices in the housing market will remain stable. She said: “House prices are more subdued than previous years, but we haven’t seen them drop off a cliff edge despite increased borrowing costs. The UK housing market is proving resilient, propped up by solid first-time buyer demand.”
How do you think this would affect the market for savings rates? Do you think any rate increase is likely to be passed on to consumers?
All but one panellist agrees that a base rate rise will be passed on to savings rates. However, they also believe that savings rates will trail the base rate.
As Giles Coghlan, chief market analyst at HYCM, explains: “In theory, higher interest rates result in more expensive borrowing. This, in turn, should translate to higher interest rates on savings accounts with another rate hike. However, it is essential to note that the average savings rate is often below inflation, and traditional high street banks may take their time when passing on the base rate increase to savers.”
One panellist believes this could change, with the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) putting pressure on banks to increase savings rates to match the base rate more closely.
Jon Ostler, CEO at finder.com, said: “1 year fixed rates have hit a 15-year high, and we will continue to see saving opportunities for those who shop around.”
Stephen Sillars, savings and investments editor at GetChip, counters: “The high-street banks have not shown any willingness over the 11 previous increases to properly reward their savers, so I don’t see them starting now.”
We asked the panellists what they think a rise in the base rate would do to mortgage rates and the products on offer from lenders and whether this would impact house prices.
“Although floating and short-term fixed mortgage rates will rise in line with any base rate increase, longer-term fixed rates are likely to stay unchanged or even drift downwards.
House prices are still underpinned in most areas by a shortage of supply and the recent decline in the availability of long-term rental properties. The prospect of limited downside on house prices, and continued wage growth as labour supply stays constrained, will limit any shrinkage of mortgage availability even if base rates rise again.”
“This is likely to increase mortgage rates and restrict affordability in the housing market, affecting both first-time buyers and investors. That reduction in affordability would be likely to crimp house prices in due course.”
“An increase in interest rates would feed through directly into tracker rates but not into fixed-term rates.
The effect of interest rate rises is spread out according to when fixed-term mortgages are renewed. For example, those with a 5-year mortgage that expires this year will find a substantial increase from a mortgage rate that could be below 2% to rates that may well be over 5% (or more).
In terms of mortgage providers, while there will be some adjustments to fixed-term rates, looking over a period of 2-5 years (a typical fixed-term rate), base rates could well be below their current value and so any such changes will be minimal.
Over a 12-month period, house prices are approximately 6% higher. However, there is evidence of some recent falls in house prices. While the UK housing market has strong regional disparities, prices are generally down across most regions.
Together with sluggish economic growth, real wages that are still falling and inflation on core products such as food and energy, this is likely to have a continued dampening effect on house prices.”
“The mortgage markets have already priced in a further BoE hike. As such, we shouldn’t see the level of volatility that some interest rate decisions – and the mini-budget in particular – have caused in the past. Moreover, we have seen rates rising for well over a year now, and signs are emerging that the property market is stabilising in the new normal of higher rates as demand and activity levels have been ticking up in the last few weeks.
As such, while those with tracker mortgages are likely to see their payments increase almost immediately and those on standard variable rates or variable mortgages are likely to see rate rises in the weeks following another hike, house prices shouldn’t suffer as a direct result of this hike.”
“The impact of people coming off fixed-rate mortgages will become apparent over the remainder of 2023. The housing market is a complex beast, but we will likely see price stagnation and low levels of activity for quite some time.”
“We are unlikely to see a major change in mortgage rates. A base rate of 4.5% has been widely expected at some point this year, so a lot of lenders will have already based their pricing on this.
House prices are more subdued than in previous years, but we haven’t seen them drop off a cliff edge despite increased borrowing costs. The UK housing market is proving resilient, propped up by solid first-time buyer demand.”
“The mortgage rates might go up as a result of further rate hikes. The effects there will be more profound the longer the base rate stays high. Also, the housing market may experience a decline due to the increased costs of borrowing.”
“Despite recently declining from the Q4 2022 “high”, mortgage rates will remain (generally) elevated due to increases in the BoE base rate.
House prices will be affected depending on the availability of mortgage products and rates. However, higher mortgage rates should unambiguously put further downward pressures on house prices.”
“House prices are already going down, a rate rise would suppress them further.”
“It will prevent mortgage rates from falling and will keep them higher for longer. Our forecast is that house prices will fall by 12% in total.”
“The product impact of another 25bp rate hike occurring is unlikely to be significant as the market has already repriced for that eventuality. Although some consumer-facing rates may not have adjusted yet, they should have done by the time the BoE announces its decision.”
“Long-term swap rates should fall further, which should encourage mortgage lenders to follow suit.”
“I don’t see things changing too much with mortgage rates which, while remaining high, seem to have levelled out. Many providers have already priced in how they see interest rates going long-term, and we’re seeing more stability with the fallout from the Liz Truss mini-budget subsiding.”
Providers may also have to factor in demand from buyers falling, who may feel they can wait around for a better deal. Tempting them with better rates could be key with the housing market cooling off.”
We asked panellists whether the base rate rise would affect the market for savings rates and if any rate increase is likely to be passed on to consumers.
“In real terms, most savings rates have not recovered to pre-2008 levels because commercial banks do not need the inflow of savings from retail customers to finance their target level of new lending.
Consumers who want a higher return have grown more comfortable with alternative channels (such as stock-market-related trading or peer-to-peer lending) despite the higher risks. So the pass-through of base-rate increases into savings rates is likely to stay weaker than it was during previous phases of monetary tightening.”
“If the Bank of England raises rates, some but not all of the benefit will be felt by savers. Most easy-access savings rates still languish far below the current base rate; this situation is likely to continue in the near future. One bright spot for savers came in the recent Budget, in which the chancellor of the exchequer raised NS&I’s funding target for the year. This is a leading sign that the prize rate on Premium Bonds is likely to rise.”
“It is good news to see that regulators and policymakers are taking a keener interest in this. We know that there is asymmetric ‘pass-through’ in how banks adjust saving and borrowing rates. In a period of rising interest rates, borrowing rates rise quicker (and more) than savings rates. The base rate has been rising for over a year, so policymakers are late to this issue, but greater scrutiny is welcome. However, I do not expect to see substantial shifts in savings rates. Instead, better rates are more likely to be found in newer entrants to the market.”
“In theory, higher interest rates result in more expensive borrowing. This, in turn, should translate to higher interest rates on savings accounts with another rate hike. However, it is essential to note that the average savings rate is often below inflation, and traditional high street banks may take their time when passing on the base rate increase to savers.”
“1 year fixed rates have hit a 15-year high and we will continue to see saving opportunities for those who shop around.”
“Savings rates are on the up, but banks haven’t been as quick to pass on the rate hikes to savers as they have to borrowers. The FCA has cottoned on to this and is now challenging banks to make sure they address the issue, so we might see some big names starting to increase their rates.”
“Saving rates have been going up as a result of the recent rate hikes, and I believe that the UK banking industry is competitive enough to allow for banking institutions to claim a larger share of consumer deposits through increases in their savings rates. This is especially true in light of the recent banking turmoil, which showed the value of a well-capitalised balance sheet.
Banks should also have the ability to raise saving rates as a result of the increased margins they should achieve from the higher lending rates they are charging.”
“Despite bank deposit rates not moving 1-to-1 with increases in the BoE base rate, we should expect some of these increases to be transferred onto savers. I do expect some of the BoE base rate increase to be passed onto savers.”
No comment
“Yes, some of it will probably be passed on.”
“Partial pass-through should occur again. Policy rates are above their neutral setting, creating an inversion in the yield curve. To the extent banks mirror that, they will temporarily face a negative margin on their loans, which will naturally discourage lending. Necessary profitability is preserved through partial pass-through of policy rate hikes to deposits.”
“Many bank savings accounts have failed to pass on recent interest rate rises to savers. However, for the savvy investor, there are accounts paying attractive rates of interest of up to 7% to those who shop around.”
“The high-street banks have not shown any willingness over the 11 previous increases to properly reward their savers, so I don’t see them starting now. Again, it’s challengers and app-based providers who are reacting and giving savers more for their money.
If the MPC votes to raise rates again, I’d expect easy-access rates to edge up slightly as they don’t have to think long-term, and we’ve seen this being the case with previous raises.”
The Bank of England (BoE) sets the official bank rate 8 times per year. If the base rate changes, it can immediately impact personal finances. Savings rates, mortgage rates and personal loan interest are all heavily influenced by what the Bank of England decides. After years of ultra-low interest rates in the UK, we are now seeing a lot of changes to the base rate due to high inflation.
At Finder, we have brought together an expert panel of 11 academics, economists, mortgage experts and savings experts, asking them for a range of predictions and opinions on what will happen with the base rate at the next BoE meeting and for the rest of the year.
Quick overview
As of March 2023, the Bank of England base rate is 4.25%.
9 of the 11 (82%) panellists believe that the base rate will continue to rise further in 2023.
8 out of 11 (73%) panellists agreed with the February rise.
The majority of panellists (64%) predicted that mortgage rates would go up due to the February rise.
While most panellists (64%) predicted savings rates would rise, they cautioned they wouldn’t mirror the base rate increase.
6 of the panellists (55%) said they recommend that the bank’s monetary policy committee (MPC) is dovish for the remainder of 2023.
Meet the panel
Full name
Organisation
Title
David Hollingworth
L&C Mortgages
Associate director
David McMillan
University of Stirling
Professor in finance
Giles Coghlan
HYCM
Chief market analyst
Jon Ostler
finder.com
CEO
Kate Anderson
finder.com
Deputy editor
Luciano Rispoli
University of Surrey
Senior lecturer in economics
Nitesh Patel
Yorkshire Building Society
Strategic economist
Paul Dales
Capital Economics
Chief UK economist
Phillip Rush
Heteronomics
Founder and chief economist
Rob Peters
Simple Fast Mortgage
Principal
Stephen Sillars
Chip
Savings and investments editor
Will the interest rate rise again?
When asked in February, a majority of the panel (9 out of 11) believed that the interest rate would rise again by the end of 2023. The approach of the BoE is not straightforward, as Giles Coghlan, chief market analyst at HYCM, explains: “The head says grind inflation into the ground and raise interest rates hawkishly. For the longer-term health of the economy, historically speaking, this is the best thing to do. However, the heart says go a bit easy as people are struggling, and many people striking are only doing so as they can’t meet basic needs.”
5 of the 11 experts (45%) predict that the base rate will sit at 4.25% by the end of 2023, and 2 out of 11 (18%) believe it will end the year at 4.5%. Another 2 panellists believe the rate will stay at 4%, and the last 2 panellists predict that there will be an even more significant increase to 5% and 5.50% by the end of 2023.
The panel disagreed on whether the bank’s MPC should take a dovish approach (eager to lower rates to encourage growth and borrowing) vs a hawkish one (quick to raise rates to curb inflation) for the rest of the year.
6 of the panellists (55%) said they recommend that the bank’s MPC are dovish for the remainder of 2023.
Jon Ostler, CEO at finder.com, said: “With a weak economy and employment market, there is a real danger of overdoing monetary tightening and we could end up in between a rock and a hard place and another hard place!” David Hollingsworth, associate director at L&C Mortgages, thinks “reaching the peak of rate rises sooner rather than later should help borrowers adjust to the new rate environment and how it impacts them”.
When asked if the BoE should be hawkish, 4 panellists (36%) believe this is the approach the BoE should take.
Dr Luciano Rispoli, senior lecturer at the University of Surrey, said: “The large inflationary shock experienced in 2022 can only be counteracted by aggressive hawkish BoE monetary policy actions. Thus, I believe MPC actions can only go one direction.” Stephen Sillars, content manager at Chip, believes “The UK needs to get a handle on inflation so it’s not really in a position to stop raising interest rates, but the Bank of England can’t ignore the fact this may push the economy into more of a downturn than already predicted.
When is the next Bank of England meeting?
The Bank of England’s MPC meets 8 times a year. The last meeting of this year will be held on 14 December 2023.
MPC meeting schedule 2023
2 February
23 March
11 May
22 June
3 August
21 September
2 November
14 December
Was the base rate increase the right decision?
When asked if they agreed that the February base rate rise would be the correct decision by the BoE, 8 of the 11 panellists (73%) said it was. Nitesh Patel, strategic economist at Yorkshire Building Society, agrees because “The BoE will be worried about overdoing the tightening, especially if it thinks inflation has peaked.” Kate Anderson, deputy editor at finder.com, said: “The BoE doesn’t have many tools available to tackle inflation. A rate rise is one of its only options to ease inflationary pressure.” Phillip Rush, founder of Heteronomics, also agrees as “Slowing the pace would send entirely the wrong signal while inflation expectations are effectively de-anchoring”.
However, 2 of the panellists (18%) didn’t agree that it was the right decision. Rob Peters, founder of Simple Fast Mortgage, said: “I would disagree, but the BoE really doesn’t have much choice. They are effectively using a blunt tool to tackle a complex problem. With much of the reason for inflation coming from global issues related to fuel and commodities, hiking up interest rates isn’t really going to have much effect.” David McMillan explained: “I think now is the time for the MPC to take stock of where the UK economy is and in the context of the global economy. I disagree with the previous rate rises that have occurred and the speed of them, which are likely to push the UK economy into recession.”
We asked the panellists what they think a rise in the base rate would do to mortgage rates and whether it would lead to products being pulled.
“Fixed mortgage rates will have largely priced in the increase, so a rate hike should have limited impact on those looking for certainty in their payments. In fact, fixed rates have been falling back substantially from the peaks following the mini budget. Borrowers on variable rates are the ones that will feel the impact initially. More have been opting for sharply priced trackers, but those on standard variable rate will continue to feel the squeeze, as lenders pass rate increases through to borrowers.
It’s entirely normal for lenders to withdraw tracker or discount deals after a base rate change in order to reassess before relaunching again. So a sudden flurry of variable rates being pulled shouldn’t be a cause for alarm.”
“I would expect to see mortgage providers respond in kind with the rate rise. However, I do not see significant disruption to the mortgage market as a result of a rate rise. The rise, should it happen, is well advertised ahead of time – again, there is a consensus view around a rise. Mortgage providers will adjust their fixed rate offerings accordingly. Perhaps a bigger concern for mortgage providers will be house price falls, combined with falling real wages and higher unemployment. With real incomes falling and tax rises (e.g., through the freezing of thresholds), households are more likely to stay put and not seek to move, reducing volumes. Combined with higher rates, there may be some households that will be, in effect, forced to sell, contributing to lower prices. A similar effect may also take place in the buy-to-let market, with greater sales (and forcing up rents due to lower supply).”
“Those with tracker mortgages are likely to see their payments increase almost immediately, while those on standard variable rates or variable mortgages are likely to see rate rises in the weeks following another hike from the Bank of England. Thankfully, the vast majority of borrowers on fixed-rate mortgages will be protected from any imminent changes.
Longer-term fixed-rate mortgages will stay in the 5–7% range for the majority of those seeking new 5-year fixed mortgages. The situation is better (lower) than it was at the end of last year for longer-term rate expectations.”
“Rate could have already peaked, but higher rates are going to be around for longer. The housing market is likely to become quite subdued.”
“The rate rise has already been priced into the mortgage market. In fact, what we are likely to see is some fixed rates come down from their October peak as mortgage providers look at the long-term landscape for the base rate.”
“Commercial banks will pass higher interest rates onto consumers, translating into higher mortgage rates. I anticipate many potential buyers will refrain from purchasing housing because of many disappearing fixed rate products (or due to unaffordable variable rates products).”
“I expect the BR to settle at 4–4.25%, which means mortgage rates will remain higher for longer. With an eye on the economy and HPI, I expect the number of high LTV products will be pulled until there is a clearer picture on prices.”
“No. The market already broadly prices a 50bps hike and has still not fully passed through the decline in 2yr and 5yr swap rates (bank treasury desks use these for setting internal transfer rates and ultimately pricing their consumer products).”
“Mortgage lending will continue albeit at an increased cost. Mortgage products generally forward price meaning the expectation of higher rates is already priced into some products. BTL landlords will be able to borrow less until they increase rents. There is and will be BTL landlord mortgage prisoners.”
“Firstly we’re savings, not mortgage, experts, but we do know our way around rates. Lenders have reacted very quickly when it comes to mortgages, as the chaos following Liz Truss’s premiership showed us back in September. Things are more settled now, but it’s unlikely we’ll see a return to the low rates of the previous decade. In general (whilst history never repeats itself exactly and you can’t rely on past performance), it’s worth remembering that historical BoE rate/mortgage rate averages are near 5%. So rates nearer 5% could well become a new normal.”
We asked the panellists how they think a rise in the base rate would impact the market for savings rates and whether the increase is likely to be passed on to consumers.
“It is well known that there is an asymmetry in pass-through by banks of interest rate changes (quicker to raise lending rates, slow to raise savings rates with higher base rates and vice-versa with lower base rates). This requires regulatory intervention, but none seems forthcoming. I see this continuing. However, this does open the opportunity to a bank to make a splash with a better savings offering, although there is still hesitancy by consumers in bank-switching.”
“While higher interest rates make borrowing money more expensive, in theory, this should mean that another rate rise should also lead to higher interest on savings accounts. However, in many cases, the average savings rate sits far below inflation, while traditional high street banks can sometimes be slow to pass on an increase in the base rate to savers, so this is something to be mindful of.
In general, expect better saving rates to be increasingly available as banks compete.”
“Savings rates are very much on a provider-by-provider basis, and we will see more rate increases if you are happy to shop around. The pending ISA deadline is likely to be a lot more active than it has been for many years.”
“Due to the long period of low interest rates, savings providers are expected to pass rate hikes onto savers. I expect that, while we will see some more competitive savings rates, banks are unlikely to pass on the full rate increase and savings rates will still significantly lag behind inflation.”
“To a lesser extent. Typically commercial banks do not pass 1-to-1 increases in base rates onto saving rates.”
“After 12 years of low rates, providers will be under pressure to compensate savers – particularly with inflation likely to remain above target in 2023. But I don’t expect banks to fully pass on rate increases to savers.”
“Yes, some will pass through. As ever, rate changes favour products for switchers – the marginal depositor. Banks naturally don’t want to needlessly raise their funding costs by passing it on to sticky customer deposits.”
“To date, interest rate increases have not been passed on to savers as inflation was seen as a temporary problem. This might start to change as we move forward into a longer-term high inflation environment.”
“We’ve not really seen the high-street banks passing on rate rises to savers, and I would expect the status quo to continue. It’s a case of them all looking at each other and enjoying the hikes on mortgages and customers’ money. The best thing for savers to do here is vote with their feet.
There are easy-access products out there bucking the trend and being reactive to rises in interest rates from providers such as ourselves at Chip. We offer a savings account that’s responsive to base rate increases and (at the time of writing) offers a market-leading return.”
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Matt Mckenna UK communications manager T: +44 20 8191 8806
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