How much will murder impact the value of your home?

It’s no surprise that murder on the premises can lower the value of your home. But just how badly does it affect prices?

Finder calculated the impact of murders on property prices across the United States. We used research from the University of Technology Sydney (UTS), which found that home prices generally fall by around 3.9% for properties located within 0.2 miles of a homicide location in the year following the murder. Not only are people disturbed by the thought that someone has been killed, a murder creates a perception that the area is generally less safe and has a higher crime rate.

We applied that percentage to the housing market in each state, looking at the number of murders and the typical housing density. We then calculated the typical impact on property price, as well as the overall impact in each state.

Based on the UTS estimate of a 3.9% drop in home values for properties located within 0.2 miles of a homicide, we calculate a $7.5 billion drop in the total US housing market as a result of homicides. Even with a more conservative estimate of only a 1% drop in home values for properties located with 0.2 miles, that still comes out to $1.9 billion in housing value lost. And if we estimate that housing prices are affected by 5%, that’s a loss of an estimated $9.7 billion.

You can see how your state ranks below:

Housing prices and murder rates in one hundred cities

We also took a look at housing prices and murder rates in the largest 100 cities by population and found a weak, negative Pearson correlation of 0.37. Although correlation does not imply causation, the correlation coefficient suggests a relationship between homicide rates and home prices playing out, at least in larger cities. In other words, as homicide rates increase, home prices tend to decrease.

Methodology

Data on median home prices were sourced from Zillow’s Zillow Home Value Index. Data on the number of murders in each state was sourced from the FBI’s Uniform Crime Reporting Program. US housing density data was calculated based on Census data on landmass per state and housing units per state. Data on the estimated effect of a nearby homicide on property values were obtained from the University of Technology Sydney (UTS) Economics Discipline Group of the Business School.

UTS research found that home prices within 0.2 miles of a homicide were reduced by 3.9% in the following year.

Previous studies:

• 2014

  It’s no surprise that a murder on the premises can lower the value of your home. But just how badly does it affect prices?

  finder.com has calculated the impact of murders on property prices across the United States. To do that, we used research from University of Technology Sydney (UTS), which found that home prices generally fall by around 4.4% for properties located within 0.2 miles of a homicide location in the year following the murder. Not only are people creeped out by the thought that someone has been killed, a murder creates a perception that the area is generally less safe and has a higher crime rate.

  We applied that percentage to the housing market in each state, looking at the number of murders and the typical housing density as of 2014. That let us calculate the typical impact on a property price, as well as the overall impact in each state.

  You can check out the impact across every state in this interactive chart:

  Which states have been hit the hardest?

  These are the 10 states which saw the biggest impact due to homicide. California tops the list (it also has the highest number of homicides), while the high-density housing market in New Jersey saw it take second place.

  State	Median home value (Dec 2014)	Number of homicides in 2014	Housing density (homes/mile2)	Properties impacted	Potential value drop	Estimated total market loss
  California	$431,200	1697	88	44,801	$17,472	$566,664,412
  New Jersey	$284,100	337	483	48,831	$11,018	$406,940,522
  New York	$253,100	613	172	31,631	$9,996	$234,835,494
  Maryland	$253,200	309	245	22,712	$9,929	$168,682,853
  Massachusetts	$322,700	131	360	14,148	$13,065	$133,923,082
  Pennsylvania	$150,300	609	124	22,655	$5,909	$99,880,482
  Virginia	$229,500	337	85	8,594	$8,978	$57,851,442
  Ohio	$114,800	436	125	16,350	$4,575	$55,058,080
  Illinois	$155,300	428	95	12,198	$6,131	$55,567,582
  Texas	$138,200	1141	38	13,007	$5,698	$52,730,265

  Methodology

  Data on median home prices was sourced from Zillow. Data on the number of murders in each state was sourced from Statista. US housing density data was sourced from towncharts.com. Data on the estimated effect of a nearby homicide on property values was obtained from the University of Technology Sydney (UTS) Economics Discipline Group of the Business School.

  UTS research found that home prices within 0.2 miles of a homicide were reduced by 4.4% (median range) for one year. The estimated total loss for each market was calculated as follows: (median home value*0.044)*(housing density/0.2)*(homicides) Data was not available for Florida, Maine and Wyoming.