Your guide to the factors affecting Bitcoin’s value and what to look for when forecasting bitcoin price changes in the weeks and months ahead.Read more…
Bitcoin price predictions
Our expert panel reacts to the recent Bitcoin surge and predicts its future value
The price of Bitcoin is one of the hottest subjects within the Cryptocurrency world. We’ve asked a panel of 13 fintech leaders what they believe is the forecast regarding its price and if it’s a good time to invest. For more predictions, check out our cryptocurrency predictions.
Bitcoin price predictions
Bitcoin (BTC) was worth $7,200 on 1 January 2020. Our panel predicts Bitcoin will increase nearly 20% to $8,589 over the next three months on average. But not everyone thinks there will be an increase in the short term: Three panellists — Dr John Hawkins at the University of Canberra; Paul Levy, a senior researcher at the University of Brighton; and Dr Elvira Sojli from the University of New South Wales — forecast a price decrease. Hawkins is most bearish, predicting Bitcoin will drop as low as $5,000. Meanwhile, Jimmy Song, author of Programming Bitcoin and lecturer at the University of Texas, is the most bullish, predicting Bitcoin to soar to $14,500.
If the panel is correct, short-term gains will be followed by a strong price increase by the year’s end. The panel thinks Bitcoin will nearly double by the end of the year, with an average forecast of $14,275 by 31 December 2020. Here too, the three panellists who thought Bitcoin would be worth less by 1 April think Bitcoin will end the year worth less than it is now. Hawkins predicts the price will drop as low as $2,000, saying, “In over a decade, Bitcoin has not made any substantial progress in becoming a payments instrument and may face stronger rivals in 2020, such as Libra, and then central bank cryptocurrencies. Payments systems in central bank currencies are also improving.”
Ben Ritchie, managing director at Digital Capital Management, offers the highest end-of-year price prediction at $34,500. He suggests the price could increase due to geopolitical and economic uncertainty, meaning “investors will look to some alternative assets to shield from these events, and cryptocurrencies is likely to be a benefactor”. He notes that onboarding infrastructure for cryptocurrency investors, such as custody, insurance, wallets and user experience, continues to improve.
Song ($22,375) predicts the second-highest end-of-year value, followed by Fred Schebesta, cofounder of Finder and Crypto Finder ($22,000), and Joseph Raczynski, technologist at Thomson Reuters ($14,000).
How will the halvening affect the price of Bitcoin?
One reason panellists think Bitcoin will increase in price is due to the upcoming halvening. The majority of panellists (82% or 9 out of 11) believe the halvening will increase the price of Bitcoin. Many of the panellists attribute this to reduced supply and subsequent increased demand for the cryptocurrency.
CEO of Digital Asset Capital Management Richard Galvin put it this way:
[The halvening] creates a focus on Bitcoin’s supply cap — one of, if not the, key broad investment thematics. An event that drives focus on a key positive is likely to have a positive impact on price.
Venture capitalist Tim Draper, founder of Draper Associates, also thinks the price of Bitcoin will increase. He says, “It [Bitcoin] becomes more valuable as the usage and costs to make it go up.”
Dr John Hawkins, assistant professor at the Canberra School of Politics and Economics, is the only panellist who expects Bitcoin’s value to decrease as a result of the halvening. “It will create more uncertainty about whether the number of Bitcoins that can be created is really immutable,” he says.
Dr Elvira Sojli, associate professor of finance at the University of New South Wales, doesn’t think the halvening will affect Bitcoin’s price.
Which cryptocurrency do the panelists believe the most in?
Our panel is most optimistic about Bitcoin, which earns an overall sentiment score of 6. Three-quarters of the panel (75% or 9 of 12) say they’re positive about Bitcoin, and 25% are negative. Ether earns the second-highest sentiment score of 3, with 50% positive, 25% neutral and 25% negative.
Aaron LePoidevin, director at Every Capital, is positive on Bitcoin, XRP, Monero and Bitcoin Cash, explaining the signals from corporate investment firms, institutions and brokers are consistent in their positivity for quality currencies:
Stablecoins continue to make an impact on market liquidity, and there appears to be traction in the decentralised finance and staking sector, as it has gained in popularity in the second half of 2019.
Ritchie notes we are likely to see a surge in the price of Bitcoin before investors broaden their investment to the altcoins toward the end of the year.
While he thinks Bitcoin will be the best performer, he believes Ethereum network upgrades toward a proof-of-stake model are likely to occur in the first quarter of 2020, which should increase its price. He notes Binance Coin is likely to do well “due to its tokenomics linking its token price to trading volumes.”
The panel is most negative on Tron, EOS and Litecoin. TRON earns the lowest sentiment score of -6, with 58% negative, 33% neutral and 8% positive. EOS and Litecoin both score a sentiment rating of -5.
Raczynski, who is positive on six coins, neutral on four and negative on one, has this to say about XRP: “Ripple confounds. It has drifted lower, fairly consistently, even though there have been generally good news stories coming from their camp … Their more centralised model may prove a challenge to sceptics going forward.”
Meet our panel for 2020
- Tim Draper, Founder, Draper Associates
- Jimmy Song, Bitcoin Educator, Developer and Entrepreneur, Programming Blockchain LLC
- Joseph Raczynski, Technologist, Thomson Reuters
- Fred Schebesta, Cofounder, Finder and Crypto Finder
- Dr Elvira Sojli, University of New South Wales
- Richard Galvin, CEO, Digital Asset Capital Management Inc.
- Dr John Hawkins, Assistant Professor, University of Canberra
- Aaron LePoidevin, Director, Every Capital
- Paul Levy, Senior Researcher, University of Brighton
- Spencer Bogart, General Partner, Blockchain Capital
- Ajay Shrestha, Ph.D. Candidate, University of Saskatchewan
- Ben Ritchie, Managing Director, Digital Capital Management
- Claudio Lisco, Strategic Initiatives Lead, ConsenSys
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