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We reveal why our panel thinks Solana (SOL) will be worth US$35 by the end of 2022 before rising to US$116 by 2025, and why holding until 2030 may be the real pay-off. All prices mentioned in this report are in US dollars.
Finder currently measures expert predictions on the future SOL price using 2 surveys. Our weekly survey asks a rotating panel of 5 fintech specialists whether they are bullish, bearish or neutral on SOL for the 2 weeks ahead. Our larger quarterly survey, last conducted in October 2022, asks a panel of 55 industry experts for their thoughts on how Solana will perform over the next decade.
Solana (SOL) is set to end 2022 at $35, according to Finder’s panel of fintech specialists. Going forward, the panel is projecting SOL to be worth around $116 in 2025 before rising to $236 by 2030.
The panel's predictions for SOL are down compared to the survey conducted in January 2022, when the panel saw SOL closing out 2022 worth $222. Looking further down the track, the panel's October predictions for both 2025 and 2030 are also considerably more bearish than in January, when the panel saw SOL hitting $486 in 2025 ($116 when asked in October) and $1,267 by 2030 (now $236).
Joseph Raczynski from Thomson Reuters holds high conviction in Solana with a price target of $70 by the end of 2022.
“While far more centralised than Ethereum, it continues to survive major outages and disruptions. There is a place for SOL in various transactions like NFT sales. It will continue to move higher because of institutional backing.”
Pointing out Solana’s network outages, Miles Paschini, the CEO of FV Bank, says “Until it has a stabilisation period, real value will not be realised.” Paschini holds a $39 price target by December 2022.
Finder’s cryptocurrency writer Frank Corva gave a similar forecast for the end of 2022 with a price target of $40 due to macroeconomic conditions. However, he said it’s difficult to provide a long-term forecast “given how frequently the chain goes down”.
Walker Holmes, the co-founder and vice president of MetaTope, sees SOL trading at $100 in 2025 and $150 in 2030, however says the centralisation of Solana's blockchain is the main hurdle for now.
“Solana hosts over 30% of all its nodes on AWS; this does not scale; this is not secure. I hope the community can work together to solve problems related to centralisation in the Solana network and allow the network to evolve in a sustainable way.”
One of the Solana bulls, Ben Ritchie, Managing Director at Digital Capital Management, sees SOL trading at $500 by 2025 and $1,200 by 2030. He notes that “the Solana network is still in the mid-development range as they continue to address network outages during high network activities. For this reason, the valuation against Ethereum is still not comparable.
“But despite the outages, the transactions in the Solana network remain high, so we can expect the SOL price to go higher in the coming years.”
The panel is mostly neutral on Solana, with 44% sitting in the holding camp. Only 33% of our panellists believe it’s time to buy SOL, while the minority (22%) say it’s time to sell.
Sathvik Vishwanath, the CEO of Unocoin Technologies has a price target of $33 by the end of 2022, saying now is the time to hold. Long term, though, Vishwanath is bullish on Solana. “Solana is the fastest blockchain in the world and the fastest growing ecosystem in crypto, with thousands of projects spanning DeFi, NFTs, Web3 and more,” says Vishwanath.
The founder of Seasonal Tokens, Ruadhan O, provides a detailed prediction for SOL. “Nothing will change during 2022. The market will remain depressed, and SOL will follow the broader market and stay near its current price.” O believes the Solana ecosystem will continue to grow at its current rate by 2025, “but will lose market share to Ethereum after Ethereum's transaction fees decrease.” By 2030, O believes that Solana will likely stagnate “without any major technological or economic changes to the Solana system.”
The majority (58%) of our panellists think SOL is not undervalued, while 29% are unsure. Only 13% think SOL is undervalued compared to Ethereum.
We asked our panel whether the continued network outages and incidents like Solana DEX OptiFi accidentally locking away $661,000 in funds caused them to lose trust in the Solana team. 37% of our panel haven’t lost trust in the Solana team, while 33% have. The remaining 30% are unsure.
Another question we asked was whether the network outages were a result of Solana’s low-cost transactions as said by Solana’s CEO or was there a bigger issue.
The overwhelming majority (78%) think there’s a bigger issue, while only 22% agree with the statement by Solana’s CEO.
Recently, the Helium Foundation, the team behind the Helium token (HNT) and the decentralised blockchain network for the Internet of Things (IoT) devices decided to close its blockchain and move to Solana.
The majority of our panel (52%) think the Helium Foundation made the right decision, while only 6% believe this was not the case. 42% are unsure.
We also asked, “Do you think the partnership will have an impact on SOL’s price?” 38% think the partnership will positively impact SOL’s price, while 28% think there will be no impact on the price, 6% think there’ll be a moderately negative impact and the other 28% were unsure.
However, the inverse is true, with the Helium Network’s price dropping 15% when it moved to Solana. 35% of Finder’s panel think this will deter other networks from moving to Solana, while 36% say it won’t and 29% are unsure.
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