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Finder analyzes expert price predictions each quarter. We conducted our most recent survey in April 2024, in which our panel of 31 crypto industry specialists shared their thoughts on how bitcoin will perform through 2030.
All prices mentioned in this report are denominated in US dollars.
On average, our panelists think bitcoin (BTC) will be worth $109,141 before 2024 is out. They think it will then rise to $150,996 by 2025 and $567,489 by 2030.
Bitcoin price predictions for 2024, 2025 and 2030
Bitcoin's price is expected to rise to $109,141 by year-end 2024, according to the average prediction from Finder's panelists.
Our most bullish panelists see BTC trading at $268,000 by the end of 2024, while our most bearish panelist sees it well below where it is now ($20,000) by the end of the year.
Our panelists also predict BTC will hit $150,996 by 2025 and $567,489 by 2030. They were more bullish than in our most recent survey from January 2024, when the long-term prediction for 2025 came in at $122,688 and $366,935 for 2030.
One of our more bullish panelists, Pedro Febrero, VP of Web3 for RealFevr, thinks the price of BTC will hit $200,000 by the end of 2024, saying that:
"The recent bitcoin price movement shows the impact of the newly launched exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Now that a new ATH has been achieved, I suspect more buyers will flood the market and push $BTC even higher."
Nick Forster, the cofounder of Lyra, is similarly bullish, saying that BTC could close out 2024 at $180,000, adding that factors including the halvening and the bitcoin ETF have caused a paradigm shift for investors.
"It seems irresponsible to not allocate 1% [to] 3% of a portfolio to crypto via the ETF. [We] will continue to see fund managers do this, even for risk-averse clients."
At the other end of the spectrum is John Hawkins, senior lecturer at the University of Canberra, who sees the price of bitcoin falling to $20,000 before the year is out.
"[Bitcoin] remains a speculative bubble. In over a decade, it has failed to become the accepted means of payment it was designed to be. To do this, it would need a much [more stable] value. But the paradox is that if the price was steady, the gamblers — who are most of its holders — would lose interest and sell, driving down the price."
How high and low will BTC go in 2024?
The average peak price our panelists predict Bitcoin will hit at some point in 2024 is $121,764 with some predicting it will climb as high as $285,000.
The average lowest price our panelists predict Bitcoin will hit at some point in 2024 is $50,138, with some predicting it will fall as low as $20,000.
Jeremy Britton, the CFO of BostonTrading.co, believes we'll see BTC reach $285,000 at some point in 2024.
"This is the only planet with Bitcoin. Elon Musk could fly to Mars and find a million tonnes of copper or mine an asteroid to get a trillion Troy ounces of gold, and the commodity prices would plummet. Nothing else in the galaxy is more scarce than Bitcoin. Bitcoin's top price is infinite because fiat cash printing is unlimited."
Sathvik Vishwanath, the Founder of Unocoin Technologies PVT LTD, is also quite bullish, as he thinks we'll see BTC crest $150,000 in 2024.
"Analysis of historical price trends, market sentiment, adoption rates, and macroeconomic factors such as inflation and geopolitical events informed the Bitcoin price predictions. BTC's current price is seen as underpriced due to its growing adoption as a hedge against inflation and increasing institutional interest. These factors suggest a bullish trajectory for Bitcoin's value, supported by its limited supply and growing demand from both retail and institutional investors."
Josh Fraser, the Co-founder of Origin Protocol, is a bit less bullish but still thinks we'll see BTC hit $150,000 at its peak in 2024.
"Bitcoin ETFs will continue to bring billions of dollars in new inflows to Bitcoin in 2024. The halving will further limit the [number] of BTC on the market, acting as a major price catalyst. In the long-term, Bitcoin will outcompete gold as a more accessible, divisible and transferrable asset, leading to my $1.1M BTC price prediction by 2030."
Kadan Stadelmann, the CTO at Komodo Platform, thinks BTC is in for a bumpy year — with a lowest price prediction of $39,450 and a peak prediction of $133,000.
"The combination of increased institutional demand for Bitcoin and the momentum around the halving is likely to propel BTC prices higher during the latter half of 2024 and possibly through the early half of 2025."
Henry Robinson, the president & cofounder at Decimal Digital Currency, also believes BTC investors should prepare for volatility, as he believes BTC's price could drop well below its current price.
"Demand from ETFs has proven tremendous with no signs of stopping. The entire wealth management world has been on-ramped to Bitcoin."
Is now the time to buy, sell or hold BTC?
The majority of our panelists believe it's a good time to buy BTC.
To be exact, 61.3% think Bitcoin is a buy at its current price, while 32.3% believe it's a good time to hold the asset. Only 6.5% think it's time to sell.
Andy LaPointe, the Crypto Product Manager of CryptoWisdom.com, believes it's time to buy BTC.
"The halving event, [along with] the purchase of bitcoin by EFT managers, will cause increased scarcity in the marketplace. In addition, institutional investors and investment advisors now have a regulated bitcoin product they can allocate into model portfolios. Also, as more businesses and governments across the globe recognize bitcoin as a payment option or investment, global demand will continue to place buying pressure on bitcoin."
Jeremy Eng Tuck Cheah, an associate professor of decentralised finance at Nottingham Trent University, is one of the few in the sell camp and sees the halving as an opportunity to sell the asset before it comes back to earth.
"There is a lot of hype around halving, and so the irrational exuberance will dissipate after the event and return to a more sensible level."
Buy, sell or hold after the halving?
While the majority of panelists say it's time to buy bitcoin, there is a shift in their attitudes post-halving, with just 43% saying you should be buying after the halvening. The largest segment say you should look to hold your BTC (47%), with 10% saying you should sell.
Is bitcoin (BTC) overpriced, priced fairly or underpriced?
Close to half (47%) of our panelists feel that bitcoin is currently selling at a discount.
40% feel that bitcoin is currently priced fairly, and 13% say it's overpriced.
Founder and CEO of Omnia Markets, Inc., Mitesh Shah, says that BTC is currently underpriced and is poised to rally.
"Bitcoin is currently exhibiting two historically unprecedented phenomena that are likely contributing to significant price appreciation and volatility. [...] The consistent growth of daily net inflows into the spot ETFs is a huge trend. This is significant because large institutions typically require extended periods to make a decision and deploy capital, suggesting the potential for further increases this summer and beyond."
Julian Hosp, CEO of Cake Group, believes BTC is currently overpriced due to "Bitcoin ETF hype."
What's the main factor that would lead to BTC reaching $100k?
If you're betting that BTC will tick over $100,000, a sizable chunk of a panel (42%) say that will only come if more capital flows into spot bitcoin ETFs. Increased institutional adoption (35%) is also something our panel sees as a core driver for BTC to successfully push to $100K.
Senior legal counsel for Mercuryo, Adam Berker, says "institutional adoption leading to BTC ETF inflows" is one factor that could drive a bull trend.
Lee Smales, professor of finance at the University of Western Australia, concurs, adding that "significant demand from institutional investors and inclusion in ETFs is a prime driver."
How long will the bull run last?
The majority of our panel (57%) see the good times rolling long into the future, predicting that the bull run will last into 2025 and beyond.
Martin Froehler, CEO of Morpher, sees greener pastures ahead, saying, "2024 is an election year, which is usually a time for stimulus and over-spending. All this is bullish for scarce assets like real estate, gold, and Bitcoin."
Managing director of Rouge International and Rouge Ventures, Desmond Marshall, is more pessimistic and sees BTC crashing back to earth before the month is out as scammers look to take advantage of newbs.
"[The] halving will likely scare a lot of first-time amateurs who may be scammed or got on the bandwagon before the halving [...] there will be many scammers/exchanges running off with all-time highs before the halving, causing further distrust of the token and probably a strong hit by SEC/Govt around the world to impose new laws."
When do you think Bitcoin will reach its post-April 2024 halving peak?
About a third (30%) of the panel see bitcoin reaching its post-April 2024 halving peak sometime in the second half of 2024, with a touch over a quarter (27%) saying it will come in the second half of 2025.
At what price do you think BTC will peak between the next two halving events?
Less than 1 in 10 (7%) think you'll see BTC going for less than $100,000 between the April halving and the next halving event (sometime in 2028).
Two large tracts of the panel see bitcoin being worth between $176K and $200K (24%) or $201K and $225K (21%).
Based on the current price of BTC and historical movements, Ryan Grace, the head of tastycrypto, sees bitcoin going between $176K and $200K.
"While the sample size is small, if we look at returns over prior halving cycles, the magnitude of return has fallen by about 70% each cycle. If we assume a similar outcome this cycle, a 150% return is realistic, from the price on the date of the halving to its cycle peak."
Bitcoin is a highly volatile asset that is prone to numerous externalities and is solely driven by supply and demand. There are multiple conflicting and unpredictable factors associated with bitcoin's behavior. Therefore, we may end up seeing substantial fluctuations in its price and value. Regulation, increasing cost of living and monetary reactions from centralized finance will be the main contributing factors to bitcoin price.
Bitcoin's demand is driven by lack of trust in fiat currencies and financial intermediaries …Therefore, its price will be determined by the market's perceptions of global monetary policy. But politics matter as well. If Trump wins, this may cause a temporary pullback in crypto as the market will see him as less dovish than the Biden administration (or any Democratic administration for that matter).
The upcoming halving and the approval of spot bitcoin ETFs has increased both retail and institutional investor interest in bitcoin. The halving event, along with the purchase of bitcoin by EFTs managers, will cause increased scarcity in the marketplace. In addition, institutional investors and investment advisors now have a regulated bitcoin product they can allocate into model portfolios. Also, as more businesses and governments across the globe recognize bitcoin as a payment option or investment, global demand will continue to place buying pressure on bitcoin.
Bitcoin is currently exhibiting two historically unprecedented phenomena that are likely contributing to significant price appreciation and volatility. Firstly, the achievement of an ATH before a halving event. Secondly, institutional investment in bitcoin now exceeds the rate of new supply generation. Additionally, the consistent growth of daily net inflows into the spot ETFs is a huge trend. This is significant because large institutions typically require extended periods to make a decision and deploy capital, suggesting the potential for further increases this summer and beyond.
The combination of increased institutional demand for bitcoin and the momentum around the halving is likely to propel BTC prices higher during the latter half of 2024 and possibly through the early half of 2025.
The halving event is expected to cause a significant surge in the BTC price if we compare the previous trends. BTC demand is constantly increasing, and hence its value will increase substantially since Institutional and retail investors are constantly growing.
This year's Crypto rally went ahead of schedule. Bitcoin fares better than we expected as inflows after the ETF launch have a big impact, despite months before halving usually bearish for the cryptocurrency. Nevertheless, it is safer to bet on the usual amplitude of bitcoin's rally we saw after halving, not a bigger one.
The current run-up in price seems mainly related to the spot ETFs. But when the ETFs based on bitcoin futures were launched in Oct 2021, the price also reached an all-time high, only to crash over the following year. Having ETFs still does not give bitcoin any fundamental value or legitimate use. It remains a speculative bubble. In over a decade, it has failed to become the accepted means of payment it was designed to be. To do this, it would need a much more stable value. But the paradox is that if the price was steady, the gamblers — who are most of its holders — would lose interest and sell, driving down the price.
Bitcoin ETFs will continue to bring billions of dollars in new inflows to bitcoin in 2024. The halving will further limit the amount of BTC on the market, acting as a major price catalyst. In the long-term, bitcoin will outcompete gold as a more accessible, divisible, and transferrable asset, leading to my $1.1M BTC price prediction by 2030.
The primary catalyst of the current crypto bull market has been the vast inflow of institutional capital following the SEC's approval of the first bitcoin spot ETFs. Demand is already outstripping supply, reportedly by a factor of 10. This is coupled with the anticipated supply shock of the upcoming halving event, where the supply of new bitcoins entering the market is cut in half. Retail investors are also returning to crypto, with many exchanges reporting an increase in new registrations.
Analysis of historical price trends, market sentiment, adoption rates, and macroeconomic factors such as inflation and geopolitical events informed the bitcoin price predictions. BTC's current price is seen as underpriced due to its growing adoption as a hedge against inflation and increasing institutional interest. These factors suggest a bullish trajectory for bitcoin's value, supported by its limited supply and growing demand from both retail and institutional investors.
Halving will likely scare a LOT of first-time amateurs who may be scammed or got on the bandwagon before the halving. The economy is NOT picking up, especially with supercore inflation rates, even with a US interest rate cut, it will NOT be a lot — hence, investors will still see gold and BTC to be a safe haven asset. However, there will be many scammers/exchanges running off with all-time highs before the halving, causing further distrust of the token, and probably a strong hit by SEC/Govt around the world to impose new laws. With the US election coming in Nov 2024, with Trump most likely a winner (considering the number of supporters), there should be a reinjection of hope to the general and traditional economy, pulling money away from BTC+gold and back into trade/stocks. Of course, any new wars/conflicts may turn the tables back.
This is the only planet with bitcoin. Elon Musk could fly to Mars and find a million tonnes of copper or mine an asteroid to get a trillion Troy ounces of gold, and the commodity prices would plummet. Nothing else in the galaxy is more scarce than bitcoin. Bitcoin's top price is infinite because fiat cash printing is unlimited.
I am into the Crypto space for many years. Figuring out where bitcoin's price is headed is a mix of deep dives into market trends and a bit of gut feeling. I track how the price has been moving lately, how much bitcoin is being traded, and what people are thinking about it all. This helps me get a sense of the market's mood. On top of that, I look at bigger things like how many people are using bitcoin, how Jan ETF's approval changing the landscape and how each of the ETFs is getting more adaptation (price point), any new tech developments such as automatic trading and other new players in that space. Even the overall economy and what's happening in the world can play a role. Those times when bitcoin production gets cut in half (halving), which has driven prices up before, are also on my radar. But even with all this information, there's a bit of an art to it all, understanding what people are thinking that might make the price go crazy. While I try my best to make educated guesses based on what I see, the crypto market can be wild, and something unexpected or a sudden change in mood could send bitcoin prices in a whole new direction. On top of all of this, I run my Crypto business exactly to solve this.
The first cryptocurrency is still a unique asset in the world due to its decentralization, and limited issuing. However, the problem of quite poor market depth will be the main reason for elevated volatility in the following years
Bitcoin ETF net inflows will likely continue throughout the rest of the year. The Fed, ECB, and other Central Banks are done with monetary tightening. 2024 is an election year, which is usually a time for stimulus and overspending. All this is bullish for scarce assets like real estate, gold and bitcoin.
Regulatory: The cases between the United States and many large institutions and exchanges have been settled, and the BTC Spot ETF has been approved. Hong Kong, Japan, Thailand and other regions are accelerating their embrace of blockchain. In terms of technological innovation: Bitcoin asset issuance protocols BRC20, ARC20, SRC20, etc. are all eye-catching. These protocols have enhanced the use cases and consumption of BTC. The popularity of BTC Layer2, such as Merlin, has also made BTC applications more vibrant. On the impact of macroeconomics and major events: Pantera Capital recently published an article called 'The Absence of Bad Things.' Indeed, all kinds of rare and crazy bad things will happen in 2022 and 2023, and the fluctuations in the global macro market are generally unprecedented. In 2024, the interest rate hike is over and the BTC Spot ETF has passed. On March 12, the single-day net inflow of the BTC Spot ETF reached an astonishing US$1 billion. The BTC halving gave the miners with huge funds more motivation to push up. BTC price… These facts make us optimistic about the future.
The halvening, so a large supply shock incoming ETF caused a paradigm shift. Now, it seems irresponsible not to allocate 1-3% of a portfolio to crypto via the ETF. Will continue to see fund managers do this, even for risk-averse clients.
There is huge ETF demand. There is a halving that will reduce supply. And a supply and a demand shock coming. And many people are not interested in selling.
While the sample size is small, if we look at returns over prior halving cycles, the magnitude of return has fallen by about 70% each cycle. If we assume a similar outcome this cycle, a 150% return is realistic, from the price on the date of the halving to its cycle peak.
The recent bitcoin price movement shows the impact of the newly launched ETFs. Now that a new ATH has been achieved, I suspect more buyers will flood the market and push $BTC even higher.
Methodology
Finder surveyed 31 fintech specialists in late March to early April 2024. Panelists can answer as many or as few questions as they like, meaning the number of responses received varies by question. Twenty-nine panelists gave their price prediction for BTC by year-end 2024, 2025, and 2030. Panelists may own some cryptocurrencies, including BTC. All prices are listed in USD per BTC.
Changes to methodology: In 2021, this research was conducted using the simple mean of all answers supplied to Finder. From 2022, we switched to using the truncated mean, with the top and bottom 10% of responses removed to attain a more consistent result. Any 2021 results quoted in this analysis have also been re-calculated using the truncated mean.
Finder analyzes expert price predictions each quarter. We conducted our most recent survey in October 2023 in which our panel of 31 crypto industry specialists shared their thoughts on how Bitcoin would perform through 2030.
All prices mentioned in this report are denominated in US dollars.
On average, our panel thinks Bitcoin (BTC) will be worth US$30,463 by 2023 before rising to US$87,125 by 2025 and then US$220,708 by 2030.
Bitcoin price predictions for 2023, 2025 and 2030
Bitcoin's price is expected to rise to US$30,463 by year-end 2023, according to the average prediction from Finder's panelists.
This price prediction was down significantly from US$38,488, the average prediction for Bitcoin's price by the end of 2023 from our July 2023 survey.
The panelists also predict BTC will hit US$87,125 by 2025 and US$220,708 by 2030. Both of these predictions are notably lower than our panelists' average predictions in our July 2023 survey, which were US$100,293 by 2025 and US$289,159 by 2030.
"My prediction for 2025 sees Bitcoin's price 10x at least from this current price," Matiu Rudolph, COO of Layer One X, says. "My 31 Dec 2023 Bitcoin price prediction is similar (but slightly lower) to today's price as liquidity and activity in the market is very low. My 31 Dec 2025 prediction is high because history has shown within its 4-year cycle that Bitcoin normally reaches its peak price approx 18 months after its halving."
Manraj Chandok, trader at Wirex, also believes we won't see much change in Bitcoin's price until the halving, which is when the block subsidy reward – the amount of Bitcoin awarded to miners – is cut in half. This is expected to occur in April 2024.
"Heading into the close of 2023, BTC is expected to maintain its current range," Chandok says. "In 2024, the Bitcoin halving event is on the horizon, which is anticipated to reignite interest in the cryptocurrency space, especially BTC."
Pav Hundal, lead market analyst at Swyftx, sees eye to eye with Rudolph and Chandok regarding the halving and he expands on why the halving is significant:
"Historically, Bitcoin halvings have followed a predictable 3-stage pattern," Hundal says. "We've always seen a surge in price momentum in the months up to a halving followed by a classic 'sell the news' event once it actually takes place. The third and final stage is a price advancement into the next bull run. In our industry, we lean on the Bitcoin halving as a beacon to navigate what we can anticipate. While we have no idea what the market conditions from a geopolitical or economic perspective will be in 2024, we know that Bitcoin will become more scarce."
However, not all of our panelists were as bullish on the halving.
"The effects of Bitcoin's halvings on the price have gotten weaker over time for 2 reasons," Ruadhan O, creator of Seasonal Tokens, says. "One is that the supply of new Bitcoins to the market is getting smaller over time in comparison to the existing supply of Bitcoins, causing the influence of mining on the price to weaken. The other reason is that, when the market cap [of Bitcoin] reaches trillions of dollars, it's a significant fraction of the size of the world economy, limiting the room for further growth."
And some of our panelists were downright bearish on Bitcoin.
"It has shown itself to be too volatile to be a store of value," John Hawkins, senior lecturer at the University of Canberra, says. "Its price fell heavily in 2022 showing it was no inflation hedge."
How high and low will BTC go in 2023?
The average peak price our panelists predict Bitcoin will hit by year-end 2023 is US$32,442, with some predicting it will climb as high as US$45,000.
The average lowest price our panelists predict Bitcoin will hit by year-end 2023 is US$22,622, with some predicting it will fall as low as US$15,000.
"There are a few indicators we can use to gauge the next few months," Pedro Febrero, VP of Web3 at RealFevr, says. "Bitcoin is reaching the halving [and] BRC20s and Ordinals will most likely [cause] BTC fees [to] increase."
Damian Chmiel, senior analyst and editor at Finance Magnates, predicts BTC will only go as high as $30,000 before the year ends.
"By the end of the current year, the price of Bitcoin is likely to consolidate," Chmiel says. "In my opinion, it won't rise above US$30,000. The cryptocurrency is currently hindered by the monetary policies of major central banks and a strong US dollar."
Our more bearish panelists are looking at Bitcoin's price through the lens of technical analysis.
"If you look at the weekly timeframe there is a head and shoulders pattern forming," Elliot Dixon, COO at Renegade, says. "The duplication of that takes you to around the US$18,000 mark. If you also look at the daily timeframe you can see that we have just taken out the last high around US$28,174. Now that liquidity has been taken, I believe the next direction of the market will be down towards the next draw on liquidity."
Alexander Kuptsikevich, senior market analyst at FxPro, is also bearish, as he sees Bitcoin peaking at just US$28,000 before year-end.
"It went below the 200-day moving average, making it a resistance," Kuptsikevich says.
Is now the time to buy, sell or hold Bitcoin (BTC)?
The majority of our panelists believe it's a good time to buy BTC.
To be exact, 66% of them think Bitcoin is a buy at its current price, while 24% believe it's a good time to hold the asset and 10% think it's time to sell.
Josh Fraser, co-founder of Origin Protocol, is one of our panelists who sees Bitcoin as a buy right now.
"Many investors are predicting the markets will flip bullish at some point in 2024," Fraser says. "Quantitative easing, the Bitcoin halving, and [spot] Bitcoin ETF approval are all on the radar for Q1/Q2 2024. As we approach the end of 2023, these macro factors will be just around the corner."
Ben Ritchie, managing director at Digital Capital Management Pty Ltd, thinks that Bitcoin is a buy despite the challenges presented by a strong US dollar.
"A robust US dollar, as indicated by the Dollar Strength Index (DXY), presents a significant challenge for Bitcoin," Ritchie says. "This is because when the dollar is strong, investors tend to become more cautious and hesitant to take risks, which can affect Bitcoin's performance in the short term."
"However, there are still reasons to be optimistic about Bitcoin's prospects for the rest of 2023. Factors like the potential launch of Spot Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) and increasing interest from institutional investors could drive its price higher, possibly reaching around $36,000."
Paul Levy, senior lecturer at the University of Brighton, feels it's time to follow in the footsteps of the hardcore HODLers out there – to hold the asset and remain patient.
"Bitcoin demonstrates continued resilience, a propensity to bounce back consistently," Levy says. "[It']s still underpinned by the patience of longer term investors."
Tristan Thoma, director of government and payments at AlphaPoint, also believes Bitcoin is currently worth holding, especially since greater adoption may be just around the corner.
"More countries will legalize use of BTC for payments and tender in coming years," Thoma says. "As legal/regulatory frameworks mature and include BTC, it will increase global penetration and use, thereby increasing the value."
John Hawkins doesn't agree with Thoma and believes it's time to sell your Bitcoin.
"15 years on, Bitcoin has clearly failed in its original mission to become a widely used payments instrument," Hawkins says.
Is Bitcoin currently overpriced, underpriced or fairly priced?
Almost half of our panelists feel that Bitcoin is currently selling at a discount.
That is, 47% feel that Bitcoin is currently underpriced.
43% feel that Bitcoin is currently priced fairly and 10% say it's overpriced.
"BTC is currently underpriced due to pressure and uncertainty in TradFi," Ruslan Lienkha, chief of markets at YouHodler, says. "The macroeconomic background doesn't allow crypto to realize its full growth potential. So, [my] forecast is 'restrained price increase' until the end of the year."
Jeremy Britton, CFO at Boston Trading.co, also believes that Bitcoin is underpriced.
"Current long-term Bitcoin holdings are at record highs," Britton says. "There is very little BTC available on exchanges or hot wallets. When major institutions such as Blackrock, ARK, Wisdom Tree and Fidelity want BTC [for their potential ETFs], they will have to bid prices very high to convince long-term HODLers to crack open their cold wallets."
Ryan Grace, head of tastycrypto, thinks the current rate for Bitcoin is fair.
"I think BTC is fairly priced given the macro headwinds," Grace says. "In the face of higher rates and US dollar strength, BTC has been one of the best performing assets year-to-date. Should we see a more stimulative monetary policy environment in the future, BTC should respond positively."
Nick Ranga, senior cryptocurrency and forex analyst at ForexTraders.com, also thinks Bitcoin is priced fairly.
"Historically, Bitcoin has been priced at around 50% of the previous all-time high going into halving events," Ranga says. "We look to be on track to be in that same ballpark going into 2024."
If G7 countries go into a recession, what impact might this have on the price of Bitcoin?
2 in 5 panelists – 40% – feel that if G7 countries go into a recession, Bitcoin's price would only experience a moderately negative impact.
27% believe that a recession would have no impact on Bitcoin's price, as the risk of recession is already priced in, while 20% believe that a recession would have a moderately positive impact on the price of Bitcoin.
"We live in highly unpredictable geopolitical and economic conditions where a recession is still a material risk," Hundal says, "forecasting in the current macroeconomic landscape is a challenge and anyone who pretends otherwise is likely hopelessly overconfident."
While Rudolph didn't comment on whether or not he thinks a recession is imminent, he believes that one would have a moderately negative impact on Bitcoin's price.
"I don't see major directional movement coming by the end of the year unless we see a recession prior to Dec 2023," Rudolph says.
Desmond Marshall, MD at Rouge International & Rouge Ventures, believes that if we do move into a recession, it might not be such a bad thing for Bitcoin – that is, as long as regulatory uncertainty around Bitcoin doesn't get in the way.
"Rumours of a coming recession may boost crypto a bit," Marshall says. "But the vagueness around regulat[ion] may cause a further dip in the price. BTC is still the strongest crypto of all, so I don't think it will dip as hard as other tokens."
Will a spot BTC ETF be approved?
4 out of 5 of our panelists believe the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will approve a spot Bitcoin ETF – an ETF in which Bitcoin itself is held as the underlying asset – either this year or next.
While only 20% believe a spot Bitcoin ETF will be approved within the year, 60% say it's likely to happen in 2024. An additional 10% think the ETF will be approved by 2025 or later.
When asked if the SEC should approve a spot Bitcoin ETF, 87% said "Yes", while 7% were unsure and 7% said no.
"A BTC spot ETF is inevitable," Martin Froehler, CEO of Morpher, says. He also believes that the ETF along with "fading macro headwinds" will be a boon for the price of Bitcoin.
Other panelists feel that a spot Bitcoin ETF coming to market – whether this year or next – will boost Bitcoin's price.
"The approval of a spot BTC ETF could pave the way for substantial structural buying from major asset allocators such as pension funds," Chandok says. "This would likely exert upward pressure on BTC's price."
How much would Bitcoin's price increase in the wake of a spot Bitcoin ETF coming to market? Joseph Raczynski, futurist at Joe Technologist, Consulting & Media, thinks the jump would be considerable and that we'll have to wait just a bit longer for it.
"If it (a spot Bitcoin ETF) were to be approved, [Bitcoin] could double in price," Raczynski says. "That (the approval) will most likely happen in 2024."
Meet the panel
Methodology
Finder surveyed 31 fintech specialists in October 2023. Panelists are able to answer as many or as few questions as they like, meaning the number of responses received varies by question. 30 panelists gave their price prediction for BTC by year-end 2023, 2025 and 2030. Panelists may own some cryptocurrencies, including BTC. All prices are listed in USD per BTC.
Changes to methodology: In 2021, this research was conducted using the simple mean of all answers supplied to Finder. From 2022, we switched to using the truncated mean, with the top and bottom 10% of responses removed in order to attain a more consistent result. Any 2021 results quoted in this analysis have also been re-calculated using the truncated mean.


Disclaimer: Cryptocurrencies are speculative, complex and involve significant risks – they are highly volatile and sensitive to secondary activity. Performance is unpredictable and past performance is no guarantee of future performance. Consider your own circumstances, and obtain your own advice, before relying on this information. You should also verify the nature of any product or service (including its legal status and relevant regulatory requirements) and consult the relevant Regulators' websites before making any decision. Finder, or the author, may have holdings in the cryptocurrencies discussed.
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Richard Laycock is Finder’s NYC-based senior content marketing manager & insights editor, spending the last decade data diving, writing and editing articles about all things personal finance. His musings can be found across the web including on NASDAQ, MoneyMag, Yahoo Finance and Travel Weekly. Richard studied Media at Macquarie University, including a semester abroad at The Missouri School of Journalism (MIZZOU).
Every 3 months, Finder empanels a range of industry specialists to get a pulse on what the future holds for crypto. This is a summary of those findings.
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finder.com is an independent comparison platform and information service that aims to provide you with the tools you need to make better decisions. While we are independent, the offers that appear on this site are from companies from which finder.com receives compensation. We may receive compensation from our partners for placement of their products or services. We may also receive compensation if you click on certain links posted on our site. While compensation arrangements may affect the order, position or placement of product information, it doesn't influence our assessment of those products. Please don't interpret the order in which products appear on our Site as any endorsement or recommendation from us. finder.com compares a wide range of products, providers and services but we don't provide information on all available products, providers or services. Please appreciate that there may be other options available to you than the products, providers or services covered by our service.
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