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The world’s second-largest cryptocurrency after Bitcoin (BTC) in terms of market capitalization, Ethereum has attracted plenty of attention around the world. As awareness of the coin grows, speculation around its potential increases along with it. So we asked our panel of 42 cryptocurrency experts what’s in store for the coin.
The price of Ethereum is expected to be at $4,596 per ETH by December 31, 2021, according to the average forecast from 27 out of 42 experts on Finder's panel who gave their price predictions. This value is 240% higher than the panel's end-of-2021 prediction back in December 2020, but about the same as its end-of-2021 prediction in April this year ($4,512).
Allnodes CEO and founder Konstantin Boyko-Romanovsky gives an above-average EOY prediction of $5,000 and says ETH's move to a proof-of-stake model is just one driver behind the coin's price
"Upgrading to a deflationary type of asset, Level 2 networks, institutional adoption, mass utilization, DeFi and dapps continuous development and rise — are all contributing factors to Ethereum's future price appreciation," he says.
University of Saskatchewan PhD candidate Ajay Shrestha says ETH will be worth $3,500 by the end of 2021, claiming "the success of the ETH depends upon how well the ETH community proposes and accepts the scalability solutions."
"The ETH community seems to be the most active of all, and that surely aids in the continuous development further along the road," he continues.
While ETH is expected to increase only slightly this year, the panel is far more bullish on its medium- and long-term forecasts. By December 2025, panelists predict that the price of Ethereum will go up to $17,810 — almost four times the expected valuation for the end of 2021.
By December 2030, the price of ETH is expected to skyrocket to $71,763 per ETH. However, this prediction is skewed by outliers: When we look at the median prediction, the forecast price of ETH by 2030 drops to $20,000.
Trade the Chain cofounder Ryan Gorman is among the most bullish on the long-term future of ETH and predicts the coin will be priced at $100,000 by December 2030. According to Gorman, rapid growth is in the cards for ETH:
"DeFi projects and other applications we have not yet even considered will continue to be built on the Ethereum blockchain and see rapid growth. This will, in turn, lead to ETH eventually overtaking Bitcoin as the world's most valuable crypto asset."
On the flipside, Decred International Operations Lead Jonathan Zeppettini predicts that ETH will grow from $2,500 EOY to $10,000 by December 2025, before plummeting to just $100 per ETH by December 2030.
"While medium-term it would not surprise me if Ethereum outperformed the market, the current uses of ETH such as ICOs, NFTs and DeFi are mostly novelties that are unlikely to be the types of 'killer apps' that are needed to bring smart contracts mainstream," he says. "It seems doubtful that Ethereum will be able to maintain its first-mover advantage here. In fact, it's debatable that these types of applications even need to interact with the base layer of a blockchain.
The event when ETH overtakes BTC as the biggest currency by market cap is on the horizon, according to the majority (68%, or 27 of 40) of Finder's panel. Not only that, but 58% of panelists say "the flippening" could happen within the next five years.
RealFevr head of Blockchain Pedro Febrero is the one panelist who believes it could happen as soon as this year, but he doesn't think it will be permanent.
"The flippening will happen, although momentarily," he says, adding, "just like other altcoins will flip ETH."
Token Metrics senior cryptocurrency investment analyst Forrest Przybysz believes ETH will surpass BTC's market cap next year, as ETH's move to PoS will turn it into a better store of value.
"Ethereum's move to proof-of-stake later this year or early 2022 will result in Ethereum's supply becoming deflationary and will be equivalent to multiple Bitcoin halvings, in terms of supply restriction," Przybysz explains. "This will make it a better store of value than Bitcoin, in addition to all the utility it provides that Bitcoin does not have."
University of Western Australia Associate Professor of Finance Lee Smales says the usefulness of ETH will inevitably lead to it surpassing BTC's market cap:
"Fundamentally, Ethereum is more 'useful' and so has greater utility than Bitcoin. Ultimately, this should lead to its value exceeding that of Bitcoin."
An additional 10% of the panel think it may take longer until the flippening happens – potentially not until 2040 and beyond. However, a third (33%) of the panelists, including Trade the Chain research analyst Nicholas Mancini, don't think the market cap of Ethereum will ever surpass BTC's.
"We believe Bitcoin will always reign king, but Ethereum will continue to grow market share until Bitcoin's next major market cycle to nine figures and higher," Mancini says.
Banz Capital CEO John Iadeluca agrees that ETH's market cap will never exceed that of BTC's:
"Ethereum will most likely eventually become more widely transacted than Bitcoin, but I do not see any scenario where Ethereum becomes worth more than Bitcoin."
Not only is ETH expected to be the biggest currency by market cap, but it is also set to be more widely transacted than Bitcoin, according to the overwhelming majority (93%) of Finder's panel.
Over a third (38%) of panelists say ETH will become more widely transacted within the year, 10% say this will happen by 2022, and a further 8% say it won't be until 2030.
However, a small minority (8%) think otherwise and believe that ETH will never be more widely transacted than BTC.
CoinSmart CEO Justin Hartzman thinks ETH will be more heavily transacted than BTC before it exceeds BTC by market cap, if that ever happens.
"I am not sure about whether Ethereum will flip Bitcoin, but it will definitely be more widely transacted," says Hartzman. "People don't like transacting with BTC, since it's more of a store of value. Ethereum, on the other hand, has built a full-on multibillion-dollar ecosystem, so the frequency of ETH transactions is definitely going to be a lot more."
CoinFlip founder and chief advisor Daniel Polotsky predicts that ETH will be widely transacted by 2030 and says it all boils down to whether ETH will have the same storage and trust found in BTC:
"If the Ethereum blockchain is trusted, used frequently by hodlers and has a killer dapp ecosystem, then not only does it make Bitcoin somewhat redundant, but it also can do a whole lot of things that Bitcoin can't."
Thomson Reuters technologist and futurist Joseph Raczynski thinks ETH will inevitably be more widely transacted than BTC, as it presents far more use cases than the latter.
"Since Ethereum is an ecosystem of both money and asset ownership — i.e., a platform for the world's interactions of everything of value — it will naturally have far more transactions very soon," says Raczynski.
With Ethereum poised to out-transact and out-market cap Bitcoin, we also asked about the fundamental differences in Ethereum's network that could give it an edge over Bitcoin.
Some 71% of panelists say Ethereum moving to a proof-of-stake (PoS) model will give it an edge on Bitcoin.
Nearly a quarter (24%) of panelists believe PoS will give ETH a big edge against BTC, a third (34%) say it will be a moderate edge, and a tenth (12%) say it will only be a marginal edge. However, nearly a quarter (24%) say PoS will not give ETH any edge, while 5% remain uncertain.
It's interesting to note that while most panelists think ETH will have an edge on BTC due to PoS, the majority (55%) of the panel doesn't think BTC should move to a PoS model either.
Arcane Crypto analyst Vetle Lunde, who doesn't believe PoS will give ETH or Bitcoin an edge, says PoS is appealing but also comes at a cost:
"First of all, the connection between the physical and digital value is removed. Secondly, it could lead to more centralization, where large holders gain more power on the network, in addition to earning coins in the process,
"These coins are earned at negligent costs compared to those of proof of work, which could lead the rich holders to become richer without any real incentives to sell. The rich get richer and gain more power."
Learn more about what the panelists have to say about Bitcoin
Ethereum is expected to retain its DeFi dominance in the long run, according to more than half (56%) of the panelists. On the other hand, under a fifth (17%) say ETH will eventually lose its dominance, while over a quarter (27%) are uncertain.
Of coins likely to overthrow ETH, 15% of our panel says it will be Solana, while 10% say it will be Polkadot, 8% Cardano and 3% Tezos. Interestingly, half (51%) of the panel who responded to this question say that no coin will overthrow ETH. It suggests that another coin may eat into ETH's market share without overthrowing it's dominance entirely.
CoinGecko cofounder Bobby Ong is among the majority who doesn't think any coin will overthrow ETH. According to Ong, ETH killers need strong propositions to beat ETH:
"Many of the other chains are looking to just be ETH killers. There needs to be a stronger proposition than just trying to beat a Layer 1 solution by being cheaper and faster, because Ethereum will solve these problems soon too. Other Layer 1 chains would have to find unique use cases to stand a chance at succeeding."
Lunde and Mancini both say ETH will retain its dominance, but that if one coin will overthrow ETH, it's Solana.
Mancini says that as long as ETH's cofounder balances the network's values and goals with its participants, ETH will be around for the long run:
"Ethereum will continue with the Lindy effect as long as Vitalik is able to balance the network participants with the values and goals of the network itself. The assets that work with Ethereum will be the ones that have the best chance to usurp it (SOL), not the ones who work against it (ADA)"
Lunde continues:
"I believe ETH will retain its DeFi dominance due to the first-mover advantage, and also a stronger decentralization than its alternatives.
"If any protocol were to overtake Ethereum's position in DeFi, I'd bet on Solana, but I believe Ethereum will maintain its position."
In the crowded cryptocurrency market, Ethereum will also face competition from a variety of other blockchain projects. The performance and development of those competitors could have positive or negative implications for the value of ETH.
Some of Ethereum's main competitors include:
Now is the right time to buy ETH, according to the majority (63%) of Finder's panel. Meanwhile, 27% say it's time to hodl, while just 10% say now is the time to sell.
Brighton Business School senior lecturer Paul Levy is part of the majority who say it's time to buy ETH, predicting the coin will undergo significant growth compared to BTC. He says this is due to "reputational and potential innovation taking place in energy efficiency."
Iadeluca says you should hold onto your ETH, as its value proposition may grow steadily:
"While the rate of growth in Ethereum's price will begin to slow, its 10-year value proposition will continue to grow steadily, despite necessary periods of decline."
Meanwhile, University of Canberra senior lecturer John Hawkins is with the minority who say it's time to sell, stating that ETH is just a "speculative bubble and will get dragged down by Bitcoin."
To get a better idea of what the future holds for Ethereum, we also need to take a look at the projects and upgrades scheduled for completion in the Ethereum roadmap.
Perhaps the biggest update due to arrive at some stage in 2018-2019 is Ethereum's switch from a proof-of-work platform to a proof-of-stake algorithm. Known as Casper, this update aims to improve transaction processing times and reduce transaction fees on the Ethereum network.
It will also make Ethereum miners redundant and replace them with "stakers". These users will stake their ETH tokens in special wallets and receive dividends from network fees based on how much ETH they stake.
However, Casper is still in development, so whether or not it achieves its aims remains to be seen.
There are also a couple of other key updates planned for the future. Speaking at BeyondBlock Taipei in November 2017, Ethereum inventor and co-founder Vitalik Buterin outlined his vision for the future of Ethereum. As well as the shift to proof of stake, Buterin mentioned other improvements scheduled for the Ethereum network, including:
In the next 12 months, the main focus for Ethereum will be on solving the problem of scalability. If this can be successfully achieved, the project is well placed to seek out further growth opportunities in the future. Having earned itself a strong position in the crypto sphere thanks to the many potential real-world uses for its technology, not to mention partnerships with some big players in the corporate world, Ethereum looks like a digital currency with plenty of potential.
However, whether or not those scaling issues can be overcome remains to be seen, while there's also the fact that there are plenty of alternative smart-contract platforms that will battle Ethereum for market share. Ongoing upgrades and continuing development are needed to help the platform rise to the challenge thrown down by the competition.
Cryptocurrencies are complex and highly speculative, and buying any form of digital currency comes with a high level of risk. It's essential to understand and appreciate those risks before making any purchases.
Ethereum's myriad potential use cases in the real world make it a project many are watching with great interest, and the battle to solve scalability issues to improve transaction speeds and lower fees will be crucial.
Competition from other projects could also play a part, though at the aforementioned Taipei blockchain conference in November 2017, Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin seemed unconcerned about potential threats from competitors, saying, "The Ethereum killer is Ethereum, the Ethereum of China is Ethereum, the Ethereum of Taiwan is Ethereum … 2.0."
Whether this statement holds true or not remains to be seen.
| Panelist | Panelist | Panelist | Panelist | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Ritchie, Managing Director, Digital Capital Management | Sagi Bakshi, CEO, Coinmama | Kate Baucherel, Digital Strategist, Galia Digital | Sarah Bergstrand, COO, BitBull Capital | |
| Konstantin Boyko-Romanovsky, CEO & Founder, Allnodes | Jeremy Cheah, Associate Professor of Cryptofinance and Digital Investment, Nottingham Trent University | Justin Chuh, Senior Trader, Wave Financial | Paul J. Ennis, Lecturer/Assistant Professor, University College Dublin | |
| Pedro Febrero, Head of Blockchain, RealFevr | Josh Fraser, Founder, Origin Protocol | Martin Fröhler, CEO, Morpher | Martin Gaspar, Research Analyst, CrossTower | |
| Ryan Gorman, Co-founder, Trade The Chain | James Harris, Director, CryptoCompare | Justin Hartzman, CEO, CoinSmart | John Hawkins, Senior lecturer, University of Canberra | |
| Julian Hosp, CEO, Cake DeFi | John Iadeluca, CEO, Banz Capital | Sukhi Jutla, COO, MarketOrders | David Klinger, Founder, Coteries Corporation | |
| Paul Levy, Senior Lecturer, Brighton Business School | Vetle Lunde, Analyst, Arcane Crypto | Nicholas Mancini, Research Analyst, Trade The Chain | Desmond Marshall, MD, Rouge International & Rouge Ventures | |
| Alex Mashinsky, CEO, Celsius Network | Bobby Ong, Co-founder, CoinGecko | Daniel Polotsky, Founder/Chief Advisor, CoinFlip | Forrest Przybysz, Senior Cryptocurrency Investment Analyst, Token Metrics | |
| Joseph Raczynski, Technologist & Futurist, Thomson Reuters | Dr Iwa Salami, Senior Lecturer in FinTech Regulation, University of East London | Lee Smales, Associate Professor, University of Western Australia | Fred Schebesta, co-founder, Finder | |
| Xavier Segura, General Partner, Morgan Creek Digital | Avinash Shekhar, Co-CEO, ZebPay | Matthew Shillito, Lecturer in Law, University of Liverpool | Ajay Shrestha, PhD Candidate, University of Saskatchewan | |
| Lee Smales, Associate Professor of Finance, University of Western Australia | Elvira Sojli, Associate Professor, University of New South Wales | Aleks Svetski, CEO, Amber | Simon Trimborn, Assistant Professor, City University of Hong Kong | |
| Jean-Philippe Vergne, Associate Professor, UCL School of Management | Sathvik Vishwanath, CEO, Unocoin Technologies Private Limited | Imran Yusof, FX/Crypto Market Strategist, Quantum Economics | Jonathan Zeppettini, International Operations Lead, Decred |
Images: Shutterstock
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