When the smell of pumpkin spice fills the air at your local Starbucks, you know autumn has arrived. Since the Pumpkin Spice Latte (PSL) debuted in 2003, it’s gained a cult-like following, boosting Starbucks’s foot traffic by 25.7% upon its seasonal launch on August 25, reportedly the coffee chain’s biggest Tuesday of the year.
Watching a product go viral is the stuff of dreams for business owners. But does the PSL hype translate into stock gains for investors? We dove into the last 10 years of Starbucks stock price data to find out.
As amusing as it would be to find a correlation between the annual Pumpkin Spice Latte launch and the price of Starbucks (SBUX) stock, there doesn’t seem to be a relationship—at least not directly.
Stock data was analyzed for business days when the Nasdaq was open, and the closing prices are unadjusted.
| Event | Open → High | Prev. Close → Event Close | Event Close → Next Close |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 PSL announcement | +0.61% | -1.79% | +1.55% |
| 2026 PSL release | +0.27% | -1.61% | +2.58% |
| 2025 PSL announcement | +1.05% | -1.22% | +4.62% |
| 2025 PSL release | +0.11% | -2.91% | +0.96% |
| 2024 PSL announcement | +0.96% | -0.25% | -0.38% |
| 2024 PSL release | +0.17% | -0.38% | +1.72% |
| 2023 PSL announcement | +0.15% | -0.93% | -0.37% |
| 2023 PSL release | +0.93% | -0.37% | +0.69% |
| 2022 PSL announcement | +0.10% | -1.03% | +1.94% |
| 2022 PSL release | +1.00% | -0.84% | +0.79% |
| 2021 PSL announcement | +0.65% | +0.45% | -0.06% |
| 2021 PSL release | +0.40% | -0.06% | +0.43% |
| 2020 PSL announcement & release | +3.76% | +5.13% | -0.37% |
| 2019 PSL announcement | +0.80% | -1.07% | +0.72% |
| 2019 PSL release | +0.41% | -0.42% | +1.02% |
| 2018 PSL announcement | +0.50% | +0.15% | -2.19% |
| 2018 PSL release | +0.85% | +0.15% | +0.38% |
| 2017 PSL announcement | +0.45% | +0.36% | -1.49% |
| 2017 PSL limited release | +0.47% | +0.13% | +0.36% |
| 2017 PSL release | +0.29% | -1.49% | -1.55% |
Over the past 10 years, SBUX stock bumped up (slightly) every year the PSL was released and every year the release date was announced.
However, while Starbucks shareholders would’ve been pleased to see their stock rise a little upon the PSL’s yearly launch, they would’ve been disappointed to see the uptick quickly fizzle out by the end of the trading day.
Seven of the past 10 launches saw SBUX stock experience negative daily returns compared to the previous day. The same can be said for eight of the past 10 years’ worth of launch date announcements.
(In 2017, there were tiny positive day-over-day returns when the PSL launched early in select locations, but the stock still dipped on the full nationwide release date).
The story flips when looking at Starbucks stock price movements after PSL releases. In eight of the past 10 years, SBUX went up the day after the PSL was released.
Granted, the price movements were small, but the pattern of positive movement following PSL release dates noticeably contrasts with the negative movement seen on most of the actual release dates over the past decade.
Is there a short-term “Pumpkin Spice Latte effect” on SBUX stock? It doesn’t look like it. But shareholders may still benefit from the value the PSL brings to Starbucks’s brand.
It’s hard to put an exact dollar value on Starbucks’s Pumpkin Spice Latte movement. But NBC News reports that hundreds of millions of PSLs have been sold since the product was introduced in 2003. Food & Beverage Magazine cites third-party estimates that the beverage brings in $500 million in annual revenue.
Beyond sales figures, the Pumpkin Spice Latte has taken on a life of its own, growing into a subculture with a loyal following.
In 2018, Starbucks started the “Leaf Rakers Society,” a Facebook group that now has over 41,000 members dedicated to celebrating fall year-round, and the company’s official Instagram post announcing the return of the PSL in 2026 received over 329,000 likes.
While shareholders may not see SBUX spike meaningfully from annual PSL launches, long-term investors can benefit from the value that much-loved products like the Pumpkin Spice Latte bring to Starbucks’s customer base and its bottom line.
Do other trendy Starbucks launches have a similarly negligible impact on its stock, or is this effect limited to PSLs alone? To find out, it makes sense to take a look at another product that made waves when it was first introduced—the glass Bearista Cold Cup.
Announced in October 2025 as the star player of Starbucks’ holiday lineup, the reusable teddy-bear-shaped cup triggered a frenzy of social media interest, and, some might say, hysteria.
The product’s launch in November was met with more interest than stores were prepared to handle, with the limited supply of Bearista cups quickly selling out (in some cases, before stores opened, due to employee purchases).
In light of the public backlash over the lack of supply, the company issued an apology, claiming the excitement had “exceeded even our biggest expectations.”
Was Starbucks secretly playing into scarcity marketing? It’s hard to know for sure. But you might wonder if the tidal wave of public interest nudged up SBUX stock.
Stock data was analyzed for business days when the Nasdaq was open, and the closing prices are unadjusted.
| Event | Open → High | Prev. Close → Event Close | Event Close → Next Close |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 Bearista announcement | +2.01% | +1.21% | -0.97% |
| 2025 Bearista release | +1.55% | -0.80% | +4.07% |
As with the Pumpkin Spice Latte, SBUX stock bumped up a little the day the Bearista was announced and the day it was released. The day following the announcement saw that small gain disappear, while the day after the launch saw the stock go up by over 4%.
The amount of data is too small to yield any decisive conclusions. But it may be reasonable to speculate that product hype alone isn’t a reliable force on the price of SBUX stock, notwithstanding the occasional modest boost seen amidst some product events.
At one point, the Bearista, which originally retailed for $29.95, was listed by resellers for hundreds of dollars—multiple times the value of a single SBUX share—demonstrating (perhaps against public sentiment) the potential profitability of collectibles compared to trend-fueled spikes in stock prices.
In the end, investors may want to stick to other paths for growing their money, like ETFs, index funds, consumer staples stocks or starting a side hustle, instead of waiting for Starbucks to drop its next seasonal product line.
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