{"id":501959,"date":"2023-08-17T14:59:51","date_gmt":"2023-08-17T13:59:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.finder.com\/uk\/?p=501959"},"modified":"2025-12-11T10:54:25","modified_gmt":"2025-12-11T10:54:25","slug":"press-release-base-rate-mortgage-impact","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.finder.com\/uk\/media\/press-release-base-rate-mortgage-impact","title":{"rendered":"Mortgage mayhem: 40% of experts agree that the latest base rate rise could contribute to a UK housing market crash"},"content":{"rendered":"<ul><li>40% of panellists predict the latest rise in the base rate could contribute to a housing market crash.<\/li><li>70% of experts predict that the base rate will be 5.5% or higher by the end of 2023.<\/li><li>Experts agree that the UK cannot catch up with the US or Europe in 2023 when it comes to fighting inflation<\/li><\/ul><p><b>03, August, 2023, LONDON \u2013<\/b><\/p><p>Experts are divided on whether the latest base rate rise by the Bank of England will lead to a housing market crash in the UK, according to a panel of 10 experts put together by personal finance comparison site <a href=\"https:\/\/www.finder.com\/uk\/\">finder.com<\/a>.<\/p><p>The <a href=\"https:\/\/www.finder.com\/uk\/banking\/base-rate-survey\">panel<\/a>, which features opinions from academics, economists, mortgage and savings experts, were asked whether a decision to increase the base rate in the next MPC meeting could contribute to a housing market crash, and 40% of the experts believed that it could.<\/p><p>Kate Anderson, deputy editor at <a href=\"https:\/\/www.finder.com\/uk\">finder.com<\/a> shared concerns that another base rate increase could lead to the demise of the buy to let market as &#8220;<i>landlords may find it unprofitable to continue due to increasing interest rates and sell up, creating downward pressure on house prices and leaving renters with even fewer options.&#8221;<\/i><\/p><p>Charles Read, fellow in economics at the University of Cambridge agreed that a housing market crash is likely, adding that<i> &#8220;we could see house prices fall by 5% or 10%, but the price of everything else rise 20% or more, resulting in a real-terms crash of 20%-30%.&#8221;<\/i><\/p><p>Konstantinos Lagos, senior lecturer in business and economics at the University of Sheffield Hallam noted that demand contraction of the mortgage market<i> &#8220;will become even more prominent as more and more fixed mortgage agreements come to an end and homeowners will need to re-mortgage at a much higher rate. UK house prices should eventually reflect this reduction of household purchasing power.&#8221;<\/i><\/p><p>However, the remaining 60% of experts predict that the UK will avoid a crash. Alan Shipman, senior lecturer in economics at The Open University explained that <i>&#8220;A crash will be avoided because of the drop in construction activity starting to limit supply of homes for sale, cash-rich property investors buying on weakness, and the recent rise in average rents restoring the appeal of buying-to-let.&#8221;<\/i><\/p><p>David McMillan, professor in finance at the University of Stirling agreed that the threat of a crash has currently receded, however, he noted that <i>&#8220;this interest rate shock could lead to an increase in selling, putting downward pressure on prices. The potential dangers remain an escalation of the Ukraine-Russia war and growth in the (sluggish) Chinese economy could put renewed pressure on international commodity markets.&#8221;<\/i><\/p><p><b>The majority of experts expect the base rate to be 5.5% or higher by the end of 2023<\/b><\/p><p>When asked what the base rate will be by the end of the year, half of the panellists predicted a rise to 5.5%. Luciano Rispoli, senior lecturer in economics at the University of Surrey said that <i>&#8220;with one of the highest inflation rates in the eurozone, the &#8220;BoE war&#8221; against inflation is far from over &#8211; so we should expect further tightening ahead, though at a lower rate.&#8221;<\/i><\/p><p>Giles Coghlan, chief market analyst at HYMC added that <i>&#8220;we should see the Bank of England&#8217;s quantitative tightening gradually coming to a halt by the end of the year, with more modest hikes in the pipeline until then.&#8221;<\/i><\/p><p>20% (2 of 10 panellists) predicting a more significant rise to 6%. Charles Read believes that: <i>&#8220;the Bank of England still has no room for complacency when it comes to inflation. The UK&#8217;s CPI figure is still the highest in the G7, running at a rate of nearly four times the Bank of England&#8217;s target rate of 2.0%.&#8221; <\/i><\/p><p>However, he added that the BoE <i>&#8220;should be cautious about further rises beyond this, as excessively fast rises in interest rates can cause financial instability and weaken the banking system.&#8221;<\/i><\/p><p>The remaining three panellists believed that the base rate could end the year at 5.25% or lower.<\/p><p><b>The UK has zero chance of catching up with the US when it comes to fighting inflation<\/b><\/p><p>No expert on the panel believed that the UK is able to catch up with the US when it comes to bringing down inflation in 2023. Charles Read explained that <i>&#8220;the US has managed to anchor inflation expectations in the ballpark of its target. In contrast, the UK let inflation expectations get out of control in 2022, sparking a wage-price spiral that results in even more price rises.&#8221;<\/i><\/p><p>Konstantinos Lagos echoed this sentiment, adding that <i>&#8220;<\/i><i>The UK is more exposed to increased oil\/energy prices than the US, and has some structural issues in its labour market&#8221;.<\/i><\/p><p>70% of experts also believe the UK is unable to catch up with Europe when it comes to tackling high inflation in 2023. Kate Anderson noted that <i>&#8220;Europe hasn&#8217;t had to deal with the double blow of an energy crisis and embedded labour shortages. We&#8217;re still having to reshape our labour market post Brexit. Businesses are feeling the pressure to raise wages to attract talent, which in turn fuels inflation.&#8221;<\/i><\/p><p>Stephen Sillars, savings and investment editor at Chip agreed that <i>&#8220;higher food and energy prices combined with an inflexible labour market and reduced trade from Brexit are all contributing factors.&#8221;<\/i><\/p><p>David McMillan was the only expert to claim that the UK could catch up with Europe when it comes to tackling inflation, commenting that<i> &#8220;both Europe and the UK are following similar paths&#8221;<\/i> when it comes to supply shortages.<\/p><p>He added, &#8220;<i>the coming winter will be an important time and what happens to gas prices. Europe has initiated a plan to address this, including reducing electricity use, capping the revenues of (non-gas based) electricity producers as well as building up gas reserves. It is to be seen if the UK will show similar aforethought.&#8221; <\/i><\/p><p>To see the research in full visit: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.finder.com\/uk\/banking\/base-rate-survey\">https:\/\/www.finder.com\/uk\/base-rate-survey<\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>40% of experts agree that the latest base rate rise could contribute to a UK housing market crash.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1292,"featured_media":492778,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"apple_news_api_created_at":"","apple_news_api_id":"","apple_news_api_modified_at":"","apple_news_api_revision":"","apple_news_api_share_url":"","apple_news_cover_media_provider":"image","apple_news_coverimage":0,"apple_news_coverimage_caption":"","apple_news_cover_video_id":0,"apple_news_cover_video_url":"","apple_news_cover_embedwebvideo_url":"","apple_news_is_hidden":"","apple_news_is_paid":"","apple_news_is_preview":"","apple_news_is_sponsored":"","apple_news_maturity_rating":"","apple_news_metadata":"\"\"","apple_news_pullquote":"","apple_news_pullquote_position":"","apple_news_slug":"","apple_news_sections":[],"apple_news_suppress_video_url":false,"apple_news_use_image_component":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3788],"tags":[],"asset_tag":[],"class_list":["post-501959","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-media"],"apple_news_notices":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v24.9 (Yoast SEO v24.9) - 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