{"id":204883,"date":"2018-08-02T09:09:52","date_gmt":"2018-08-02T08:09:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.finder.com\/uk\/?p=204883"},"modified":"2025-01-06T13:21:24","modified_gmt":"2025-01-06T13:21:24","slug":"press-release-july-2018-interest-rate-survey","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.finder.com\/uk\/media\/press-release-july-2018-interest-rate-survey","title":{"rendered":"Panel of 9 economists all predicted interest rate rise: Finder UK\u2019s inaugural BOE Bank Rate Survey"},"content":{"rendered":"<ul><li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">BOE Overnight rate rises 25 basis points to 0.75%<\/span><\/li><li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Finder UK launches inaugural Bank Rate Survey: all 9 economists predicted rate rise<\/span><\/li><li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Over half of economists predict increased trade costs could result from Brexit negotiations<\/span><\/li><li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">6 of the 9 economists hold a negative outlook for housing affordability<\/span><\/li><\/ul><p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">2 August 2018, London &#8211; <\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">An inaugural report by personal finance comparison website <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.finder.com\/uk\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">finder.com<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> has found that 100% of the nine economists surveyed expected today&#8217;s decision by the Bank of England to lift the base rate.<\/span><\/p><p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The Bank of England rose the interest rate by 25 basis points from 0.5% to 0.75% at this morning&#8217;s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting \u2013 the fifth meeting of 2018 and only the second interest rate rise since July 2007.<\/span><\/p><p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">According to the <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.finder.com\/uk\/banking\/base-rate-survey\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Finder UK BOE Bank Rate Survey<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, some of the economists believe the increase marks a shift following a decade of record low interest rates.<\/span><\/p><p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Peter Dixon, Financial Economist at CommerzBank, commented in the report that &#8220;\u2026despite all the concerns about the weakness of the UK economy, we no longer need rates consistent with the crisis levels of 2009.&#8221;<\/span><\/p><p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Jeremy Thompson-Cook, Chief Economist at WorldFirst, cited similar reasoning, stating that, &#8220;\u2026a hike in August marks the first steps of undoing the emergency levels of accommodation that have been provided to the UK economy since 2009.&#8221;<\/span><\/p><p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">When asked to share their outlook on five economic indicators over the next six months, the report found that wage growth saw the most positive outlook, with six of the nine economists (67%) expecting a positive outlook for the next six months. It was followed by employment (44%), cost of living and housing affordability (both at 22% respectively).<\/span><\/p><p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">When asked for their thoughts on potential economic outcomes of Brexit negotiations, just over half of the economists (56%) cited increased trading costs, and 44% believe the negotiations could result in a higher cost of living. The survey also found that 33% foresee weakened exchange rates.<\/span><\/p><h4><b>The factors our economists think will result from Brexit negotiations<\/b><\/h4><table class=\" custom-table js-custom-table\"><thead><tr><td><b>Factors<\/b><\/td><td><b>Proportion of panelists<\/b><\/td><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td><b>Rising interest rates<\/b><\/td><td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">22%<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><b>Higher property prices<\/b><\/td><td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">0%<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><b>Higher cost of living<\/b><\/td><td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">44%<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><b>Greater household debt<\/b><\/td><td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">22%<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><b>Rising unemployment<\/b><\/td><td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">22%<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><b>Tighter lending rules<\/b><\/td><td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">0%<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><b>Increased trade costs<\/b><\/td><td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">56%<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><b>Weakened exchange rates<\/b><\/td><td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">33%<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><b>Restricted government spending<\/b><\/td><td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">22%<\/span><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">  <\/span><\/p><p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Commenting on the rate increase, Jon Ostler, UK CEO at finder.com, said: &#8220;Today&#8217;s decision comes as no surprise. Our panel of nine leading economists <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.finder.com\/uk\/banking\/base-rate-survey\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">unanimously predicted<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> that the interest rate would rise by 25 base points, and this is a positive sign that the economy is growing stronger.<\/span><\/p><p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">&#8220;It&#8217;s particularly good news for savers, who have suffered ultra-low interest rates for the past decade. They can expect a rise to their savings, albeit a small one. Now is a good time to consider switching your banking products, as banks will be reviewing their rates. Make sure you keep an eye on which banks are offering the best interest rates as not all of their products will increase by the BoE&#8217;s 25 basis points.<\/span><\/p><p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">&#8220;On the other hand, borrowers and homeowners with a mortgage are likely to face extra costs. For example, those paying off the UK&#8217;s average mortgage debt with a variable rate mortgage face paying an extra \u00a317-\u00a318 per month, which adds up to an extra \u00a3200 per year or more than \u00a36,000 over the life of a 30-year loan term.&#8221;<\/span><\/p><h4><b>The forecasts and comments by the nine economists in the inaugural Finder UK Bank of England Bank Rate Survey:<\/b><\/h4><table class=\" custom-table js-custom-table\"><thead><tr><td><b>Name and title<\/b><\/td><td><b>Organisation<\/b><\/td><td><b>Forecast for August 2<\/b><\/td><td><b>Comments<\/b><\/td><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td><b>Peter Dixon, Senior Economist<\/b><\/td><td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Commerzbank<\/span><\/td><td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Increase by 25 basis points<\/span><\/td><td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">&#8220;Primarily because, despite all the concerns about the weakness of the UK economy, we no longer need rates consistent with the crisis levels of 2009.&#8221;<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><b>Alan Bridle, UK Economist<\/b><\/td><td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Bank of Ireland UK<\/span><\/td><td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Increase by 25 basis points<\/span><\/td><td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">&#8220;Evidence of some acceleration in growth after a weak start to 2018, a more implicit desire to avoid a further slide in Sterling with impacts on imported inflationary pressures and, after a decade of ultra-low rates, a greater understanding of the unintended consequences and the need to begin a process of modest adjustment.&#8221;<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><b>Philip Rush, Founder and Chief Economist<\/b><\/td><td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Heteronomics<\/span><\/td><td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Increase by 25 basis points<\/span><\/td><td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">&#8220;To prevent excess demand building a domestically generated overshoot of the inflation target.&#8221;<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><b>Jeremy Thomson-Cook, Chief Economist<\/b><\/td><td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">World First<\/span><\/td><td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Increase by 25 basis points<\/span><\/td><td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">&#8220;Growth has rebounded from a poor, weather-affected Q1 and wage inflation is seen to increase further by the end of the year. A hike in August marks the first steps of undoing the emergency levels of accommodation that have been provided to the UK economy since 2009&#8221;.<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><b>Sanjay Raja, UK Economist<\/b><\/td><td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Deutsche Bank<\/span><\/td><td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Increase by 25 basis points<\/span><\/td><td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">&#8220;Resilient output data (especially in May) coupled with broadly positive labour market data should be compelling for most members on the MPC. Additionally, we expect a pick up in inflation, which we think could also push some MPC members who are undecided to act sooner rather than later in order to curb inflationary pressure.&#8221;<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><b>James Smith, Developed Markets Economist<\/b><\/td><td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">ING<\/span><\/td><td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Increase by 25 basis points<\/span><\/td><td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">&#8220;Overall, the recent data flow has suggested the economy has regained some poise after a particularly weak first quarter. With wage growth still performing reasonably well, it looks like the Bank is gearing up for a rate rise in August. But what comes thereafter is less certain. The retail sector is still struggling, whilst noise surrounding Brexit is only likely to ramp up as we head into the autumn. That could make it trickier for the Bank of England to hike rates further before the UK leaves the EU.&#8221;<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><b>Carlos de Sousa, Senior Economist<\/b><\/td><td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Oxford Economics<\/span><\/td><td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Increase by 25 basis points<\/span><\/td><td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">&#8220;When it became clear that the run of poor data published through April would prevent the MPC from raising interest rates in May, we argued that the hike would merely be postponed for a few months, rather than abandoned altogether. And an August rate hike is looking increasingly likely as each week passes and the data offers further confirmation that the Q1 weakness was a blip. The CIPS surveys for June added to the body of evidence that activity has recovered in Q2. All three sectors reported stronger PMIs in June than May, with the acceleration in services activity particularly impressive \u2013 June&#8217;s balance was the highest for eight months and, indeed, it was the first time in this period that the balance had exceeded the long-run average.&#8221;<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><b>Andrew Wishart, UK Economist<\/b><\/td><td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Capital Economics<\/span><\/td><td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Increase by 25 basis points<\/span><\/td><td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">&#8220;The Monetary Policy Committee held off raising rates in May because it wanted to see evidence that the weak patch in economic activity at the start of the year was just a blip. The official data and business surveys released since then suggests that growth did indeed recover in Q2. With little slack left in the labour market, robust growth is likely to lead to a further increase in wage inflation. Alongside the MPC&#8217;s ambition to return interest rates to a level from which they can be cut to help in the next downturn, we think that provides reason enough for the MPC to raise interest rates in August.&#8221;<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><b>Olga Tschekassin, Global Economist<\/b><\/td><td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Dolfin Financial<\/span><\/td><td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Increase by 25 basis points<\/span><\/td><td><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">To view the full results of the survey, complete with embeddable infographics, please visit: <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.finder.com\/uk\/banking\/base-rate-survey\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">www.finder.com\/uk\/interest-rate-survey<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">. <\/span><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>An inaugural report by personal finance comparison website finder.com has found that 100% of the nine economists surveyed expected today&#8217;s decision by the Bank of England to lift the base rate.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":385,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"apple_news_api_created_at":"","apple_news_api_id":"","apple_news_api_modified_at":"","apple_news_api_revision":"","apple_news_api_share_url":"","apple_news_cover_media_provider":"image","apple_news_coverimage":0,"apple_news_coverimage_caption":"","apple_news_cover_video_id":0,"apple_news_cover_video_url":"","apple_news_cover_embedwebvideo_url":"","apple_news_is_hidden":"","apple_news_is_paid":"","apple_news_is_preview":"","apple_news_is_sponsored":"","apple_news_maturity_rating":"","apple_news_metadata":"\"\"","apple_news_pullquote":"","apple_news_pullquote_position":"","apple_news_slug":"","apple_news_sections":[],"apple_news_suppress_video_url":false,"apple_news_use_image_component":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3788],"tags":[],"asset_tag":[],"class_list":["post-204883","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-media"],"apple_news_notices":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v24.9 (Yoast SEO v24.9) - 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