{"id":118904,"date":"2023-11-02T04:08:52","date_gmt":"2023-11-02T04:08:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.finder.com\/uk\/?p=118904"},"modified":"2026-04-30T12:46:07","modified_gmt":"2026-04-30T11:46:07","slug":"base-rate-survey","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.finder.com\/uk\/banking\/base-rate-survey","title":{"rendered":"Bank of England base rate predictions: Will interest rates continue to go down?"},"content":{"rendered":"<script type=\"text\/javascript\">\n    function addLink() {\n    var body_element = document.getElementsByTagName('body')[0];\n    var selection;\n    selection = window.getSelection();\n    var k = document.location.href\n    var pagelink = \"<br><br> Source: \";\n    var finder = \"finder.com\"\n    var ke = (finder.link(\"https:\/\/www.finder.com\/uk\/\"));\n    var pagelink2 = \"<br> Analysis conducted by finder.com\";\n    var copytext = selection + pagelink + (k.link(document.location.href)) + pagelink2;\n    var newdiv = document.createElement('div');\n    newdiv.style.position='absolute';\n    newdiv.style.left='-99999px';\n    body_element.appendChild(newdiv);\n    newdiv.innerHTML = copytext;\n    selection.selectAllChildren(newdiv);\n    window.setTimeout(function() {\n    body_element.removeChild(newdiv);\n    },0);\n    }\n    document.oncopy = addLink;\n    <\/script>\n  <p>The Bank of England (BoE) sets the official bank rate 8 times per year. If the base rate changes, it can immediately impact personal finances. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.finder.com\/uk\/current-accounts\/best-banks\">Savings rates<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.finder.com\/uk\/mortgages\">mortgage rates<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.finder.com\/uk\/personal-loans\">personal loan<\/a> interest are all heavily influenced by what the Bank of England decides.<\/p><article class=\"luna-card luna-card--shadow\"><div class=\"luna-card__block\"><h3 class=\"luna-sectionTitle\">Bank of England base rate: Highlights<\/h3><ul><li>The base rate set by the Bank of England is 3.75% as of 30 April 2026.<\/li><li>The base rate is projected to fall to rise to 4.25% by early 2027.<\/li><li>The next base rate meeting is on 18 June 2026.<\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/article><h3>What are the latest base rate predictions?<\/h3><p>The latest predictions indicate that the base rate will rise to 4.25% by early 2027 before falling slightly to 4% by early 2028. The base rate was previously predicted to keep falling, but the war in the Middle East has increased inflationary pressures worldwide. <\/p><h3>UK interest rate predictions<\/h3><table class=\"luna-table\n     luna-table--responsiveList\n     js-tablesorter\">\n            <thead class=\"luna-table__header\">\n        <tr>\n                            <th scope=\"col\">Date<\/th>\n                            <th scope=\"col\">UK base rate forecast <\/th>\n                            <th scope=\"col\">Change from current base rate<\/th>\n                    <\/tr>\n        <\/thead>\n        <tbody class=\"luna-table__body\">\n            <tr>\n                            <td>Early 2027<\/td>\n                            <td>4.25%<\/td>\n                            <td>0.50%<\/td>\n                    <\/tr>\n            <tr>\n                            <td>Early 2028<\/td>\n                            <td>4.00%<\/td>\n                            <td>0.25%<\/td>\n                    <\/tr>\n        <\/tbody>\n<\/table><h3>When is the next Bank of England meeting?<\/h3><p>The next Bank of England base rate meeting is on 18 June 2026. The Bank of England\u2019s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meets 8 times a year.<\/p><table class=\"luna-table\n     luna-table--responsiveList\n     js-tablesorter\">\n            <thead class=\"luna-table__header\">\n        <tr>\n                            <th scope=\"col\">MPC meeting schedule 2026<\/th>\n                    <\/tr>\n        <\/thead>\n        <tbody class=\"luna-table__body\">\n            <tr>\n                            <td>Thursday 5 February<\/td>\n                    <\/tr>\n            <tr>\n                            <td>Thursday 19 March<\/td>\n                    <\/tr>\n            <tr>\n                            <td>Thursday 30 April<\/td>\n                    <\/tr>\n            <tr>\n                            <td>Thursday 18 June<\/td>\n                    <\/tr>\n            <tr>\n                            <td>Thursday 30 July<\/td>\n                    <\/tr>\n            <tr>\n                            <td>Thursday 17 September<\/td>\n                    <\/tr>\n            <tr>\n                            <td>Thursday 5 November<\/td>\n                    <\/tr>\n            <tr>\n                            <td>Thursday 17 December<\/td>\n                    <\/tr>\n        <\/tbody>\n<\/table><h3>How does the Bank of England decide the base rate?<\/h3><p>The Bank of England\u2019s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meets 8 times a year to discuss the state of the economy and determine the base rate. They can choose to raise it, lower it or hold it. <\/p><p>The committee is composed of 9 members, including the Governor of the Bank of England, 3 Deputy Governors, the Bank\u2019s Chief Economist and 4 external members appointed directly by the Chancellor of the Exchequer.<\/p><p>Each member of the MPC is an expert in economics and monetary policy and is independent, so they do not represent any particular group. There is also a representative from HM Treasury present \u2013 they can discuss policy issues but are not allowed to vote. <\/p><p>Before deciding on the best course of action, they have a series of meetings to assess the current state of the UK economy and what forecasted inflation and growth look like. The MPC members then vote on what the base rate should be set at, and the majority wins. <\/p><p>In short, the MPC\u2019s role is to adjust the base rate to maintain a balance between preventing high inflation and supporting economic growth. These regular meetings ensure they can react promptly to changing economic conditions.<\/p><iframe id=\"datawrapper-chart-11Yur\" title=\"Base rate and inflation (CPI) in the UK, 2004-2025\" width=\"100%\" height=\"401\" scrolling=\"no\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" src=\"https:\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/CvhgT\/1\/\" style=\"width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/iframe><h3>How does the Bank of England decide the base rate?<\/h3><p>The 3 main factors that determine interest rates are inflation (how fast prices are rising), the overall growth of the UK economy and current rates of employment.<\/p><ul><li><b>Inflation.<\/b> The UK government has a target of 2% inflation to keep prices stable while also safeguarding against deflation and a potential downturn in the economy. If inflation is high, the bank raises interest rates to try and keep this under control.<\/li><li><b>Growth of the economy.<\/b> The Bank of England looks at current growth in the economy (or any contraction) as measured by Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and growth forecasts for the economy. If the economy is weakening, they may lower interest rates to encourage people to spend rather than save.<\/li><li><b>Employment levels.<\/b> High employment rates signal a stronger economy and a higher chance of public spending, while lower employment signals a weaker economy and possible recession, at which point the BoE may want to lower interest rates.<\/li><\/ul><p>The Bank of England has increased the base rate in increments since December 2021. They decided to do so because of various economic shocks causing high inflation. <\/p><p>The first was the coronavirus pandemic, which led to a shortage of products and increased demand, which began to push up prices. This was followed by Russia\u2019s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, which significantly impacted the price of food and energy around the world and in the UK. <\/p><p>A shortage of workers also happened after the pandemic, as some people decided not to return to work or to retire early. This meant that businesses had increased hiring costs. <\/p><p>As a result, inflation began growing, and the Bank of England has raised the base rate from 0.1% in December 2021 to 5.25% in August 2023.<\/p><p>Inflation has come down significantly from a peak of 11.1% in October 2022, but it still has not reached the BoE\u2019s target rate of 2%, which is why they have decided to hold the base rate at the last few meetings. <\/p><p>However, it has been confirmed that the UK economy is in a recession, so the Bank of England is expected to begin lowering the base rate in the coming months. <\/p><h3>How does the base rate affect my savings?<\/h3><p>The savings rates available to you should increase in line with the base rate if this goes up. When the base rate is higher, interest rates rise, meaning you earn more on your savings balance. On the other hand, if the base rate is kept low, savings rates are also low, and it\u2019s not as rewarding for consumers to keep money in savings accounts. <\/p><p>There has been criticism that banks do not pass on interest rate rises to consumers quickly enough with their savings products. Savings rates tend to be lower than the base rate, as banks normally pay less to savers than they charge on loans so they can cover their costs.<\/p><h3>How does the base rate affect my mortgage?<\/h3><p>While a higher base rate tends to be good news for savers, it generally means that mortgage holders will pay more as interest rates rise. Since the middle of 2022, mortgage rates have been much higher than is typical due to a higher base rate. <\/p><p>Average mortgage rates peaked around the middle of 2023 but had been gradually coming down as inflation was lowered. However, the war in the Middle East has caused mortgage rates to start rising again. <\/p><div class=\"eeQuote box u-rounded--lg source-finder type-expert\">\n    <div class=\"eeQuote__gridContainer\">\n        <div class=\"eeQuote__photoContainer\">\n            <div class=\"eeQuote__startQuoteIcon\">\n                <svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"40\" height=\"36\" viewbox=\"0 0 32 28\" fill=\"none\">\n  <path d=\"M13.1114 3.54845C12.05 5.01898 11.1447 6.64935 10.3955 8.43956C9.64624 10.2298 9.24041 11.8282 9.17798 13.2348C10.7389 13.8102 11.9563 14.6733 12.8304 15.8242C13.767 16.975 14.2352 18.3816 14.2352 20.044C14.2352 22.0899 13.5484 23.8482 12.1749 25.3187C10.8637 26.7253 9.2092 27.4286 7.21127 27.4286C5.15091 27.4286 3.43394 26.7253 2.06036 25.3187C0.686788 23.9121 0 21.8661 0 19.1808C0 16.3037 0.749223 13.043 2.24767 9.3986C3.74611 5.75424 5.83769 2.62138 8.52241 0L13.1114 3.54845ZM30.8762 3.54845C29.8148 5.01898 28.9095 6.64935 28.1602 8.43956C27.411 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<\/div>\n\n        <div class=\"eeQuote__contentContainer \">\n            <div class=\"eeQuote__content\">\n                                    <div class=\"eeQuote__heading\">Our expert says: How does the base rate affect my mortgage?<\/div>\n                                <div class=\"eeQuote__quote\">\n                    <p>\"The base rate is one factor in how providers price their mortgages. While mortgage rates don\u2019t follow it exactly, the higher the base rate is, the higher mortgage rates available are likely to be.<\/p><p>If you\u2019re looking to get a new mortgage deal, there are some things you can do to secure the best rate for yourself. For example, if you\u2019re remortgaging, did you know you could secure a new deal for yourself 6 months before your current deal ends? If it looks like the base rate is likely to climb higher, it\u2019s sometimes a good idea to lock in a deal ahead of time to get a more competitive rate.<\/p><p>It\u2019s also worth comparing different mortgage deals, not only among different providers but also different types of mortgage products and term lengths. For example, you have the choice between fixing your rate for a set period or tracking the base rate. When things are volatile with the base rate, it\u2019s probably the wiser choice to fix so you know what your monthly repayments will be each month.<\/p><p>If you do opt for a fixed rate, compare shorter term and longer term deals. Do you want to fix for 2 years in the hope there will be better rates available at the end of your term? Or do you go for 5 years so you have the security of knowing what you are paying each month for a time?<\/p><p>It\u2019s also important to consider the overall cost of the mortgage, not just the rate. This means taking into account any fees, whether this be arrangement fees or early repayment charges.\"<\/p>\n\n                <\/div>\n            <\/div>\n\n                            <div class=\"eeQuote__authorInfo\">\n                                            <div class=\"eeQuote__authorPhoto--mobile\">\n                            <figure class=\"eeQuote__photo\">\n                                <img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"Kate Steere's headshot\" src=\"https:\/\/www.finder.com\/finder-us\/wp-uploads\/2025\/11\/KateSteereF1_Finder_600x600.png\" class=\"avatar avatar-200 photo finder-avatar\" height=\"200\" width=\"200\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.finder.com\/finder-us\/wp-uploads\/2025\/11\/KateSteereF1_Finder_600x600.png?fit=180 180w, https:\/\/www.finder.com\/finder-us\/wp-uploads\/2025\/11\/KateSteereF1_Finder_600x600.png?fit=360 360w, https:\/\/www.finder.com\/finder-us\/wp-uploads\/2025\/11\/KateSteereF1_Finder_600x600.png?fit=600 600w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 600px) 100vw, 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                                        <a class=\"eeQuote__authorName\" href=\"https:\/\/www.finder.com\/uk\/author\/katesteere\" itemprop=\"url\" target=\"_blank\">\n                                Kate Steere\n                            <\/a>\n                                                                            <div class=\"eeQuote__authorTitle\">Editor<\/div>\n                                            <\/div>\n                <\/div>\n                    <\/div>\n    <\/div>\n<\/div>\n<h3>How does the base rate affect personal borrowing?<\/h3><p>As with mortgage rates, credit card rates also increase as the base rate rises, making it more expensive to borrow money. The average interest rate on a credit card in 2024 was 24%, the highest it had been since recording of averages began in 1995, according to data from the Bank of England.<\/p><p>If you are planning to take out a new credit card, loan or overdraft when the base rate is higher than usual, you\u2019ll see much higher interest rates, which will increase your monthly repayments. <\/p><h3>What is the history of the base rate?<\/h3><p>The base rate was last at 5.25% back in February 2008. Following the global financial crisis and subsequent recession in the UK, the Bank of England decided to lower the base rate in increments before it reached 0.5% in March 2009.<\/p><p>It stayed low for a long period between 2009 and 2021 before the Bank of England started increasing it in December 2021. This was a period of some of the lowest interest rates the UK had ever seen \u2013 good for mortgages and credit products but bad for savers.<\/p><div id=\"sources\" style=\"position: relative;\"><h3 style=\"position: absolute; width: 1px; height: 1px; padding: 0; margin: -1px; overflow: hidden; clip: rect(0,0,0,0); white-space: nowrap; border: 0;\">Sources<\/h3>\n<div id=\"lazy0000000000\"><\/div>\n<script type=\"application\/json\" id=\"lazyloaded-assets-json-lazy0000000000\" class=\"lazyloaded-assets-json\">{\"critical-scripts\":[],\"scripts\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/www.finder.com\\\/parent-theme\\\/shortcodes\\\/article-source\\\/prod\\\/article-source.de087a0da9824e407767.js\"],\"styles\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/www.finder.com\\\/parent-theme\\\/shortcodes\\\/article-source\\\/prod\\\/article-source.87684078d471e76125dd.css\"]}<\/script><\/div><div data-tags=\"scale-surveys product-data-insight\">\n<h4>Click <a href=\"https:\/\/www.finder.com\/uk\/stats-facts\">here<\/a> for more research. For all media enquiries, please contact \u2013<\/h4>\n\n<p><strong>Matt Mckenna<\/strong><br>\nUK Head of Communications<br>\n<strong>T:<\/strong> +44 20 8191 8806<\/p>\n\n<div class=\"has-margin-bottom\"><a title=\"email Matt\" href=\"mailto:matt.mckenna@finder.com\" class=\"has-margin-right-xsmall\"><svg class=\"luna-icon\"><use xlink:href=\"#mail-fill\" width=\"24\" height=\"24\"><\/use><\/svg><\/a><a title=\"Finder UK (@findercomUK) on X\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/findercomUK\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"has-margin-right-xsmall\" rel=\"noopener\"><svg class=\"luna-icon\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" viewbox=\"0 0 24 24\" width=\"24\" height=\"24\"><use xlink:href=\"#f1-x\"><\/use><\/svg><\/a><a title=\"Matt Mckenna on LinkedIn\" href=\"https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/in\/matthewmckenna2\/\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"has-margin-right-xsmall\" rel=\"noopener\"><svg class=\"luna-icon\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" viewbox=\"0 0 24 24\" width=\"24\" height=\"24\"><use xlink:href=\"#f1-linkedin\"><\/use><\/svg><\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Bank of England (BoE) sets the official bank rate 8 times per year. Here at the latest base rate predictions, including expert analysis. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":588,"featured_media":123568,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"apple_news_api_created_at":"","apple_news_api_id":"","apple_news_api_modified_at":"","apple_news_api_revision":"","apple_news_api_share_url":"","apple_news_cover_media_provider":"image","apple_news_coverimage":0,"apple_news_coverimage_caption":"","apple_news_cover_video_id":0,"apple_news_cover_video_url":"","apple_news_cover_embedwebvideo_url":"","apple_news_is_hidden":"","apple_news_is_paid":"","apple_news_is_preview":"","apple_news_is_sponsored":"","apple_news_maturity_rating":"","apple_news_metadata":"\"\"","apple_news_pullquote":"","apple_news_pullquote_position":"","apple_news_slug":"","apple_news_sections":[],"apple_news_suppress_video_url":false,"apple_news_use_image_component":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1045],"tags":[],"asset_tag":[],"class_list":["post-118904","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-banking"],"apple_news_notices":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v24.9 (Yoast SEO v24.9) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Bank of England base rate predictions: Will interest rates continue to go down?<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The base rate is forecast to fall from the current rate of 5.25% to around 4.5% by May 2024 and be at 3.75% by May 2027.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.finder.com\/uk\/banking\/base-rate-survey\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_GB\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Bank of England base rate predictions: Will interest rates continue to go down?\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The base rate is forecast to fall from the current rate of 5.25% to around 4.5% by May 2024 and be at 3.75% by May 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content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Matt McKenna\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"29 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.finder.com\/uk\/banking\/base-rate-survey#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.finder.com\/uk\/banking\/base-rate-survey\"},\"author\":[{\"name\":\"Matt McKenna\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.finder.com\/uk\/#\/schema\/person\/6c93fdbefb8eed76bdb4a5419ee4091b\"},{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.finder.com\/uk\/#\/schema\/person\/f47c60d501e5ddf9ce90508d8d3a9ed6\"}],\"headline\":\"Bank of England base rate predictions: Will interest rates continue to go 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