Terra (LUNA) price prediction
Where Finder's panel of fintech specialists predicted LUNA to go before it lost its peg.
Today's Terra price versus ATH
Compare today's price of Terra ($1.99 USD) against its all time high price of $18.87 USD on May 28, 2022. The closer the bar is to 100%, the closer LUNA is to reaching its ATH again.
ATH date: May 28, 2022
Terra ATH: $18.87
What happened to the price of LUNA in May 2022?
In May 2022 the price of LUNA crashed by more than 99.9%. This was caused due to a flaw in the Anchor protocol which was exploited by a sophisticated and very well funded trader. Here is a brief summary of what happened.
LUNA users are able to mint a US dollar stablecoin called UST by depositing LUNA into the Anchor protocol in return for UST. The system is designed so that will maintain its peg through the support of LUNA, as 1 UST can always be redeemed for $1 of LUNA.
The attacker created a scenario where UST lost its peg, and used that to crash the price of LUNA. They were able to do this because the system is designed so that when UST loses its peg, more LUNA is created to help incentive arbitrage traders to restore the peg by trading UST for $1 worth of LUNA, thus purchasing LUNA at a discount. The attacker exploited this system by creating enormous downward price pressure on UST and then redeemed it for LUNA. This caused the supply of LUNA to increase rapidly, creating a hyperinflationary effect on the LUNA supply. This caused the value of both LUNA and UST To drop, trending towards zero, as the devaluation of each coin worsened the effect on the other.
Price chart for Terra (LUNA-GBP)The candlestick graph shows you the open, high, low and close for each day over the last month. Use this graph to get a feel for price variations on a daily basis and to understand how Terra may be trending.
Terra price index compared against major cryptocurrenciesCompare the price index of Terra over the last 90 days against Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple and Tether. This chart does not show prices directly, but instead shows how the price variations of LUNA compare against BTC, ETH, XRP and USDT. Price index graphs are useful to compare different assets against one another by benchmarking their price on a specific date and showing change since then. In this case, we're benchmarking these prices against 90 days ago. The relatively straight line represents Tether, a stable coin that is pegged against the US dollar.
Where Terra (LUNA) was expected to go, prior to Terra (UST) losing its peg
In late March to early April–prior to Terra (UST) losing its peg–Finder surveyed 36 fintech specialists for their thoughts on how LUNA will perform over the next decade. At the time, they thought Terra (LUNA) would be worth US$143 by the end of 2022 before rising to $390 by 2025.
The price of Terra (LUNA) was expected to jump to US$143 by the end of 2022, according to Finder.com's panel of fintech specialists. Prices were expected to climb from there, with a forecast of $390 to close out 2025 and $997 by the end of 2030.
Ben Ritchie, managing director of Digital Capital Management, gave one of the most bullish end of 2022 predictions of $200, provided there are no regulations on stablecoins and UST adoption grows.
"The LUNA token will continue to gain traction as long as there are no clear regulations in stablecoins. We believe that LUNA and UST will have an advantage and be adopted as a major stablecoin across the crypto space. LUNA is burnt to mint a UST, so if the adoption of UST grows, the LUNA will benefit greatly. Having Bitcoin as a reserve asset is a great decision by the Terra governance."
Professor of finance at the University of Sussex Carol Alexander was also all-in on the coin, saying "as its name implies, it could actually go to the moon (for a while)".
However not everyone was so bullish. Some panelists pointed to the coin's vulnerabilities, foreshadowing its price drop.
Dimitrios Salampasis, director, MFinTech/lecturer, FinTech Innovation and Entrepreneurship at Swinburne University of Technology, like investor Mark Cuban, said he was wary of algorithmic stablecoins which, unlike collateralized stablecoins, are either backed by fiat or other cryptos, have no associated collateral.
"Algorithmic stablecoins are considered as being inherently fragile and are not stable at all. In my opinion, LUNA will be existing in a state of perpetual vulnerability," Salampasis said.
Head of Funds at DigitalX Asset Management Matthew Harry, who thought LUNA would be worth $160 at the end of the year, thought it was hard to tell what impact the Terra Luna project would have on the token's price.
"There is a lot of uncertainty around LUNA right now – the project is really ambitious and the objective an admirable one but just what the effect on the LUNA token itself will be is unclear."
MD of Rouge International & Rouge Ventures, Desmond Marshall, thought LUNA would "fall flat very soon" due to its "lack of overall functional support".
Can LUNA be the most staked asset?
In early March, it was reported that LUNA was only second to ETH as the second-largest staked asset among all cryptocurrencies. However, less than a quarter (24%) of the panel think that Terra will ever become the most staked asset. While that's not a huge vote of confidence, less than half (40%) don't think it's possible.
Disclaimer: Cryptocurrencies, including Terra, are speculative, complex and involve significant risks – they are highly volatile and sensitive to secondary activity. Performance is unpredictable and past performance of LUNA is no guarantee of future performance. Consider your own circumstances, and obtain your own advice, before relying on this information. You should also verify the nature of any product or service (including its legal status and relevant regulatory requirements) and consult the relevant Regulators' websites before making any decision. Finder, or the author, may have holdings in the Terra or any other cryptocurrency discussed.
Meet the panel
Forecasts for 2022, 2025, and 2030
Finder surveyed 36 fintech specialists from 28 March – 11 April 2022. Panellists are able to answer as many or as few questions as they like, meaning the number of responses received varies by question. Panellists may own some cryptocurrencies. All prices are listed in USD.
Changes to methodology: In 2021, this research was conducted using the simple mean of all answers supplied to Finder. From 2022, we switched to using the truncated mean, with the top and bottom 10% of responses removed when there are 10 or more respondents in order to attain a more consistent result. Any 2021 results quoted in this analysis have also been re-calculated using the truncated mean.
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