Survey: How will the midterms affect the world of finance?
Early voting for the 2022 midterms is already underway, with the main event set to happen on Tuesday, Nov. 8, 2022. These elections will impact a great many aspects of American life but with the Fed clamoring to keep inflation under control and the economy teetering on the edge of recession, we thought we’d ask how people see the midterms affecting the economy.
In the six months following the midterms, 32% of respondents said that they think the economy will perform worse than it did in the six months leading up to the elections. Of that 32%, 22% think the economy will perform somewhat worse and 10% say it will be extremely worse.
A quarter (25%) of the respondents said that the economy will be better off, with a split of 19% saying things will get somewhat better and 6% saying the situation will be extremely better.
The remaining respondents were either neutral (32%) or unsure (11%).
While these figures hold true between the sexes, with some variations in the degrees of better or worse, it’s the generational splits that are particularly interesting.
Older generations are far more hopeful that things will get better following the midterms, with 31% of baby boomers and 38% of the silent generation saying the economy will improve.
At the other end of the spectrum are generation Z and millennials, with just 18% of generation Z and 21% of generation Y saying things are going to get better.
People in the West have the highest hopes for the economy following the midterms, with 28% saying things will be better (7% extremely better and 21% somewhat better). People in the South are least confident in the economy doing well after the midterms, with 35% saying things will get worse (11% extremely worse and 24% somewhat worse).
Which House/Senate combination will cause the most volatility?
A Democratic House and Senate is the least preferable combination following the midterms, with 26% of respondents stating that the Democrats winning the House and Senate will make the markets more volatile. A Republican-led House and Senate is only slightly less preferred, with 21% saying this combination will make the markets more volatile. A third of respondents (33%) were unsure of which combination for governing the House and Senate would impact markets.
27% of men say if the Democrats win the House and Senate, the markets will be more volatile, compared to 24% of women.
Boomers are the generation most out on the economy if the Democrats win the House and Senate, but also the generation with the highest percentage that markets will be more volatile if the Republicans take the House and Senate.
People in the West just slightly think that a Democratic House and Senate will be worse for markets, with 26% in both the Midwest and Northeast agreeing.