KPMG says self-driving cars will cut U.S. sedan sales in half by 2030
Driverless transportation services will arrive gradually in metro market after metro market.
The latest research predicts that sales of personally-owned sedans in the United States will fall frantically over the next decade or so, resulting from a progressive influx of driverless transportation services.
A whitepaper, released by global financial services company KPMG, entitled Islands of Autonomy explores the anticipated growth, development and adoption of self-driving vehicles in America and around the world.
“A trillion-dollar market is swiftly developing around a new and disruptive transportation mode: driverless vehicles coupled with mobility services,” according to KPMG’s report.
KPMG’s study estimates that sales of sedans in the U.S. will reduce from 5.4 million units sold in 2016 to just 2.1 million units sold each year by 2030, a decrease of almost two-thirds (-61%) in just thirteen years.
However, the whitepaper suggests the embrace of this new transportation service will not be immediate. Rather, it will arrive gradually in metro market after metro market, thus creating these “islands of autonomy”.
The density of major cities will give service providers the opportunity to meet customer demands for rapid response times, according to the study. Additionally, early autonomous cars will operate most effectively in geofenced urban areas, so they can observe the driving environment, gather data and improve performance.
KPMG’s report suggests more than 150 “islands of autonomy” will evolve across the transportation market. This is based on the U.S. Census Bureau’s Combined Statistical Areas – communities of 300,000 or more people.
Households are projected to sell sedans but keep larger vehicles, like SUVs and vans, for travel and events.
“Families with multiple cars will consolidate because a driverless vehicle does not need to sit parked and unused where the driver left it; it can do double or triple service,” according to the research.
Alphabet Inc’s Waymo, which started as the Google self-driving car project in 2009, has begun testing autonomous vehicles, without a backup driver, on public roads in an area of the Phoenix metropolitan region.
In August, Dominos and Ford began testing an autonomous pizza delivery system in Ann Arbor, Michigan.
From early 2018, a number of vehicles, operating autonomously under the supervision of General Motors and subsidiary Cruise Automation, will be tested on city streets throughout the borough of Manhattan, New York.
Ride-sharing company Uber is aiming to test the real-world application of flying cars in Los Angeles’ skies in just a few years, anticipating “heavy use” of its forthcoming uberAir services in time for the 2028 Olympics.
Despite this, manufacturers reported that more cars were sold in 2016 than in any other year. 17.5 million light vehicles were sold throughout the U.S. last year, slightly more than the record-setting amount sold in 2015.
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