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甚麼是孖展?如何用孖展增加 IPO 中籤率

熱門 IPO 一手難求,以最近上市的雲頂新耀(1952.HK)為例,這隻新股獲超額認購逾 600 倍,一手中籤率僅得 2%。按這個比例推算,散戶要抽 50 手才有望獲配發一手,但雲頂新耀每手入場費接近 $28,000,抽 50 手要拎出百幾萬,本金有限的散戶可以怎麼辦呢?孖展認購就是常見的解決方法。

孖展認購增加中籤機會

孖展即是向銀行或證券行借錢可資,孖展認購顧名思義就是要借錢認購新股,這可增加投資者至少獲配發一手新股的機會。用簡單概率來理解一下:假設中籤比率是 2% 的話,每 50 個「一手黨」,平均只有 1 個人可中籤。透過借 95% 孖展認購,散戶同樣只需約莫一手認購款項便可以抽 20 手,相對本金的中籤率自然提升。

孖展利息提高平手門檻

雖然借孖展可以增加抽中新股的機會,但借錢會產生利息開支。利息開支越高,回本的門檻越高。孖展利息主要取決於兩個因素,銀行或證券行所收取的利率,以及認購日至公佈日之間的計息日數。計息日數可長可短,如「水中茅台」農夫山泉(9633.HK)的計息日數長達 10 天。

孖展利息對投資者獲利影響有幾大呢?假設每手入場費是 $10,000,抽一手中一手,新股升 10%,散戶就可賺 $1,000。若散戶進取一點,借 95% 孖展抽夠 50 手,以 3% 利息計 10 日,投資者便要支付近 $400 利息開支。即使新股在首日漲一成,投資者的回報亦只得約6%,這仍未計算認購費(普遍 $100)及買賣佣金。若新股走勢弱,投資者隨時要蝕轉頭。

孖展利息計算例子

阿啤舉例,假設透過耀才借孖展抽新股卓越商企服務(6989)﹕

新股卓越商企服務(6989)
認購股數500,000股
所需認購金額HK$5,393,811.18
借貸金額HK$4,854,430.06
投資者需支付金額HK$539,481.12
孖展息率2.58%
借貸日數4日
利息支出HK$1,372.54

*以上資料參考耀才網站,並以其作為例子

靜觀其變再落飛

如上所述,新股的表現對於孖展認購的投資者的盈虧有較大影響。因此,有意用孖展增加注碼的投資者落飛前,可以先觀察一下 IPO 早段的認購反應。超額認購倍數較低反映市場對於新股的需求不夠強,上市走勢或會因沽壓較大而表現遜色,反之亦然。

總結

雖然孖展認購可增加中籤的可能性,但投資者亦要留意利息開支對潛在回報的影響,避免弄巧成拙。

想抽新股?即刻開個港股戶口啦﹗

 

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