Blockchain technology at a precarious and demanding stage of the ‘Hype Cycle’: report

Posted: 20 August 2018 3:00 pm

At this stage of Gartner’s Hype Cycle, many technology producers either withdraw or fail but survivors thrive.

Blockchain technology and other digitalized ecosystems have been identified as one of a handful of emerging technology trends that “blurs the line between man and machine”, according to the latest insights report.

Research and advisory company Gartner has released the Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies 2018 report which examines the ways technological innovation will profoundly impact business.

The insights report reveals that blockchain technology has moved to the third stage of its life cycle, the Trough of Disillusionment. After the initial breakthrough to mainstream, also known as the Innovation Trigger, tech products experience a Peak of Inflated Expectations, where early publicity produces a number of success stories accompanied by many failures, before moving to the Trough of Disillusionment.

Throughout this phase, Gartner suggests interest in the product (in this case blockchain technology) wanes as experiments and implementations fail to deliver. Technology producers either give up or fail. However, if surviving providers manage to improve their products and satisfy early adopters, investors may keep coming.


Gartner’s report points out that emerging technologies require proficient ubiquity-enabling ecosystems.

Blockchain technology is leading the shift from compartmentalized technical infrastructure to ecosystem-enabling platforms. Distributed ledger technology (DLT) is helping to bridge the gap between humans and technology.

It’s not just blockchain. It’s Blockchain for Data Security, Digital Twin, IoT Platform and Knowledge Graphs.

“Digitalized ecosystem technologies are making their way to the Hype Cycle fast,” Gartner research vice president Mike J. Walker said. “Blockchain and IoT platforms have crossed the peak by now and we believe that they will reach maturity in the next five to ten years, with digital twins and knowledge graphs on their heels.”

The other four emerging technologies dominating the Hype Cycle are Democratised Artificial Intelligence (AI), Do-It-Yourself Biohacking, Transparently Immersive Experiences and Ubiquitous Infrastructure.

Check out Gartner’s Hype Cycle as of August 2018:

Source: Gartner

The Hype Cycle helps people separate hype from the real drivers of a technology’s commercial promise.

Earlier this month, a research report forecast that spending on blockchain solutions would increase to $11.7 billion by 2022. Now, a new analysis has revealed that in the first half of 2018, blockchain investment in the United States has hastily eclipsed the total investment expended throughout the entirety of last year.

The Union of European Football Associations (UEFA), the governing body for soccer in Europe, has managed to efficiently and effectively implement a new blockchain-based mobile ticketing distribution platform.

However, despite a $400 billion cryptocurrency market capitalization, significant technological developments and dynamic new business partnerships, the interest in and appropriation of distributed ledger technology (DLT) remains exceptionally low among corporations’ digital strategy professionals, Gartner revealed in May.

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